It's been a year since last season’s AFC Championship and we have gone full circle as the Bengals and Chiefs are set to face off at Arrowhead Stadium … again.
We got a preview of this game in early December when the Bengals took down Kansas City in Cincinnati, a game that marked the only loss for either of these teams since October.
These matchups have gone the Bengals' way and have Cincinnati referring to the Chiefs stadium as “Burrowhead”.
Despite the Bengals' success and Patrick Mahomes' injury, sportsbooks still have the Chiefs as slight 1.5-point favorites.
With such a narrow spread, it’s hard to write a game script for either team’s success. Instead, we will focus on the tempo of the game. Let’s see what we can put together.
The Parlay (odds via FanDuel) (+1055)
- Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions
- Isaiah Pacheco Over 48.5 rushing yards
- Joe Mixon Over 59.5 rushing yards
- Alt Total Points Under 52.5
Travis Kelce
Over 6.5 Receptions
Kelce had one of the best seasons we have seen from a tight end in NFL history. He caught 110 passes for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. He continued his dominance in the playoffs last week against the Jaguars, racking up 14 catches, 98 yards and two touchdowns.
Kelce has been the focus of opposing defenses all year and no one has been able to stop him. Throughout his career, Kelce has often taken his game to the next level in the playoffs.
In his past seven playoff games, Kelce has gone over 6.5 catches six times. That was even in years prior when the Chiefs were more reliant on the big play for offensive success.
This year, Kansas City been much more methodical and we saw it happily utilize Kelce in a death-by-a-thousand paper-cut strategy. As the old saying goes “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Chiefs should feed Kelce.
Isiah Pacheco
Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
Kelce is not the only player primed for success. Pacheco has worked his way to the top spot in the Chiefs' backfield and hasn't turned back. In his past 11 games, Pacheco has only failed to exceed this mark once.
Adding Patrick Mahomes' ankle into the equation adds even more confidence to this pick. Kansas City will look to make life easier for its quarterback by leaning on the running game.
The only other fear is the Chiefs offensive line answering the call. However, that shouldn’t be a problem because Kansas City’s front has mauled people all year. The Chiefs rank fifth in PFF’s run-blocking game this season.
Joe Mixon
Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
Last week, the Bengals gave us quite a shock with an explosive running game. The shock did not come from Mixon’s play, but from the fact that they were able to overcome losses on the offensive line.
That success came against a Bills front that ranked 14th in yards per carry allowed — nearly identical to the Chiefs No. 15 rank in yards per carry allowed.
In their previous matchup, we saw Cincinnati lean heavily on the run and experience great success. Samaje Perine rushed 21 times for 106 yards.
Cincinnati typically matches the tempo its opponent provides. If Kansas City isn’t pushing the envelope, neither will Cincinnati. Since our first two bets revolve around the Chiefs utilizing a conservative game script, this falls in line as a perfect third pick.
Alternate Total Points
Under 52.2
This bet comes as a consequence of all our others.
If Kansas City inches its way down the field via Kelce and Pacheco, it will also be burning clock. This will allow the Bengals to also play a more conservative style, utilizing a run game similar to last week.
We saw this in the previous matchup as both teams finished with just eight drives each and 12 of those 16 drives exceeded two minutes in length. For as high-powered as these offenses are, injuries have dampened their burst.
The Bengals' offensive line limits Joe Burrow’s time to throw and thus deep plays are harder to develop. On the other side, Mahomes' injury will limit his mobility and ability to make those crazy game-changing plays we are accustomed to seeing.
Both teams will lean on their short passing game and rushing attack in this matchup. That caters to our under pick.
