After hitting on the Jameis Winston/Jaleel McLaughlin/Jerry Jeudy Triple Crown for 34-1 last week on Monday Night and then Jared Goff/Josh Jacobs/Christian Watson on Thursday night at 42-1, I'm looking to keep it going with another one here for Monday Night Football.
Last night, we were 2-for-3 but missed on the receiving market with Quentin Johnston. I considered Josh Palmer, who was the correct pick, but had the right idea. Instead, I just had the wrong Chargers receiver.
This has been a fun market to look into and sweat. If you don’t have access to this specific site/prop, here's a reminder that most sites offer most passing/rushing/receiving yards markets individually and some do let you parlay some of them, so you can still usually get pieces of this at other books. I also encourage you to play around with these. There are obviously a lot of options.
Bengals vs. Cowboys Props: Monday Night Football Leaders Bet
This is under the "Popular" tab for Bengals vs. Cowboys tonight at FanDuel.
Pick: Cooper Rush / Ja'Marr Chase / Chase Brown (+1300)
Passing Yards: Cooper Rush
This is the contrarian part of the Triple Crown play that I think gives us the most value here.
Obviously, Joe Burrow is likely to throw for more yards than Cooper Rush tonight, but this is a situation where the Bengals could build a big enough lead that it allows them to be a bit more run-heavy than usual.
This also correlates with my Rico Dowdle rushing prop (under 67.5 yards) and you can see in my write-up that I think check-down passes to Dowdle may be a more effective way for him to rack up yards tonight.
The Bengals defense is more than capable of allowing Rush to throw for 270 or more yards tonight. That's especially the case if Cincinnati gets up early, which sets up a scenario for Rush to throw for more yards than Burrow.
Receiving Yards: Ja'Marr Chase
We get some anti-correlation here by going with Rush for passing yards and Ja'Marr Chase for receiving yards, which is helping us get to a nice +1300 price here.
I’m obviously still expecting Burrow to throw for a ton of yards, but I think we see Chase get an even higher percentage of them than usual as the Cowboys should be able to get pressure on Burrow at a higher rate. Chase’s target share goes from 22.5% when Burrow has a clean pocket to 33% when he’s facing pressure.
Rush could spread the ball around a lot more here with CeeDee Lamb leading the way, but Brandin Cooks is back and crowds the WR room a bit more. Also, Jake Ferguson is back, which also helps Rush’s upside tonight and will allow him to spread the ball around more. Backup TE Luke Schoonmaker played well in his absence, so he may earn some snaps/targets even with Ferguson back. I
also mentioned I like Dowdle’s receiving upside tonight after the Bengals allowed all three Steelers running backs to register 35 or more receiving yards against them last week.
Rushing Yards: Chase Brown
I’m a bit down on Dowdle’s rushing upside tonight but very high on Chase Brown tonight. I think we could see Brown rip off multiple long runs and that he is the clear choice here.
Plus, anytime he does rip off longer runs, it will only take away from potential Joe Burrow passing yards, giving us some nice correlation with the first two legs of this. As I mentioned in my Dowdle prop write-up, the Cowboys tend to let Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Luepke, CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin — and sometimes even Trey Lance — get rush attempts, which lowers his ceilng, but Brown has essentially zero competition for touches.
Therefore, my official Triple Crown play for this game is: Cooper Rush / Ja'Marr Chase / Chase Brown at +1300
There are a lot of fun/creative ways to attack this market for this game, which is why I find this market so much fun to attack, but this is the one I like the most.
I think we would need Ja’Marr Chase to have a fast start to this game, get a ton of yards early and set up a run-heavy game script for Chase Brown. That would also lead to a pass-heavy game script for Cooper Rush, who will likely be spreading the ball around quite a bit tonight.
Of course, it doesn’t mean that’s exactly how the game will go and we are threading the needle quite a bit here, but think this is offering value at +1300 and should probably be closer to +1000.
