Bengals vs. Eagles Odds
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Two 0-2 teams meet at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday to see which can avoid going 0-3. It's only Week 3, but it feels like a must-win for both teams if they want to make the playoffs.
I think it's safe to say the city of Philadelphia is starting to turn on Carson Wentz. He's struggled through his first two games and losing to the Bengals would send the city into a state of panic. Philadelphia has been more successful running the ball this season, so its path to victory may involve taking the ball out of his hands.
Even though the results haven't been there, Joe Burrow has looked promising in his first two starts. However, he doesn't have a capable offensive line or the pieces around him right now to make the Bengals into a playoff team.
Despite the backdoor cover last Thursday, Cincinnati was dominated by the Browns (4.0 vs. 7.5 yards per play) and will have a tougher test in Philadelphia.
Cincinnati Bengals
Offense
Even though Burrow threw for 316 yards against the Browns, he wasn't efficient, averaging only 5.2 yards per attempt. He still looks like he's going to be one the best future quarterbacks, but right now Cincinnati is in rebuilding mode. What the Bengals need to do now is put a capable offensive line in front of him — they had the third-worst offensive line of 2019 according to Pro Football Focus and there are still a lot of question marks in 2020.
Having Joe Mixon in the backfield makes up for a lot of the issues. However, he is having trouble getting going this season, with only 3.3 yards per carry. He's averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry the past two seasons, so things are likely to improve, especially with a better quarterback under center.
Cincinnati has a solid group of receivers, but its success is going to be dependent on A.J. Green. The star wideout missed almost half of last season due to injury, but when he's healthy, he's one of the best in the NFL. Adding Tee Higgins in the draft provided Burrow with another solid target, but he'll have a tough test as Philly's defensive line will be in the backfield all game.
Defense
The Cincinnati line is anchored by Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, who have been two of the best linemen in the game. However, the Bengals will be without Atkins for a second consecutive game due to shoulder injury. And outside of Atkins and Dunlap, Cincinnati doesn't have any other above-average linemen, so Philly should be able to run effectively in the game.
Cincinnati had the worst-graded linebacking group over the last two years (according to PFF). The Bengals didn't make any significant improvements in the offseason, so it's hard to imagine they'll be able to improve, especially after that terrible performance against Cleveland.
The Bengals' secondary added a few pieces after ranking 15th in defensive passing success last season. However, they allowed Baker Mayfield to light them up for 9.5 yards per attempt on only 23 attempts last week. And while Wentz has struggled so far, he should have a good opportunity against this secondary after what we saw last Thursday night.
Philadelphia Eagles
Offense
The Eagles offense has sputtered through the first two weeks of the season only gaining 4.6 yards per play.
Philly's running backs had the benefit of playing behind one the best run-blocking offensive lines last season. That's continued into 2020 as the Eagles have run the ball for 4.1 yards per carry and have ranked fifth in rushing success through the first two weeks.
The Eagles' issues offensively are in the passing game.
Wentz has been incredibly inefficient, throwing for only 5.7 yards per attempt. The offensive line didn't do him any favors in Week 1, but kept a clean pocket for him in Week 2 by not allowing any sacks and only five pressures. Wentz should have no excuse if the offensive line can hold up against a weak Cincinnati defensive line.
Defense
Philadelphia's defensive line is one of the best in football. Not only does the unit have a ton of talent, but it also has a ton of depth. However, Fletcher Cox is questionable, so it will be a big blow to Philly if he can't play.
The Eagles ranked fourth in terms of rushing success allowed and third in stuff rate last season per Football Outsiders. And they showed out against both Washington and Los Angeles, allowing only 3.6 yards per rush attempt. Now, the Eagles will have a great opportunity to wreak havoc in the backfield against PFF's 31st-ranked offensive line heading into 2020.
The Eagles went through a number of changes over the offseason, mainly in their secondary. They traded for Darius Slay and let Ronald Darby walk in free agency. Slay is an upgrade from Darby and should improve a secondary that ranked 10th in passing success rate last season.
Philly got torched by Jared Goff last week, allowing 9.9 yards per attempt and three touchdowns. However, the Eagles should have better success against Burrow and the Bengals' below-average group of receivers.
Bengals-Eagles Pick
The difference in this game is going to be in the trenches — the Eagles' defensive line has a fantastic matchup and should able to force the Bengals to become one dimensional.
On the other side of the ball, Philly should be able to keep their strong running attack going, especially with Atkins out for Cincy.
I have the Eagles projected at -7.97, so there's some value in backing them on Sunday. However, I would only play that line up to -6.
PICK: Eagles -4.5 (up to -6)
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