My NFL props were 4-2 so far for Week 6, which started with a win on Brock Purdy back on Thursday night. Tonight, we're betting an over on an explosive Bengals running back.
For more Bengals-Giants bets, here are our staff's picks tonight.
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Bengals vs. Giants Player Prop
Zack Moss (ankle) was removed from the injury report, and Chase Brown is expected to play through a quad injury. We should expect a similar split between the two backs tonight where Moss is the starting RB and will typically handle most passing-down work.
Brown has been the more efficient runner and will get most of his work on early downs with plenty of field in front of him. He leads all RBs (out of 61 qualified) with an explosive run rate at 22% and will face a Giants defense that has allowed the second-highest explosive run rate.
Brown is running inside the tackles at a higher rate (61%) this season, which is the 12th-highest rate in the NFL. The Giants defense has allowed a league-high 20% of run inside the tackles to go for 10 or more yards.
This seems like the perfect storm for Brown and the best market to invest in him tonight.
I'm projecting his median closer to 15 yards with around a 62% chance he clears 13.5.
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 12.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 13.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 14.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 15.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 16.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 17.5 | 33% | 67% |
