Bengals vs. Jaguars Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Over 45.5 | to 47 |
| Joe Mixon Over 2.5 Rec |
Over 45.5
Sean Koerner: The sharp play here would be to take the points on the winless, hopeless Jaguars — but I'm not going to put any hard-earned money on them until they prove they can play a competitive, close game.
The Bengals offense should be able to have their way against the Jaguars' defense, but it’ll be up to Trevor Lawrence and the Jags to put up enough points early to ensure the Bengals' offense keeps its foot on the gas. With Begnals safety Jessie Bates out and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie likely to miss, that becomes a possibility. It also doesn’t hurt that the Jaguars rank first in pace of play through Week 3.
What looks like another awful Thursday night matchup could turn into a sneaky shootout. The betting market is starting to raise this line, with some books already up to 46.5 as of writing, so lock this over in sooner than later.
I would bet this to 47.
Joe Mixon Over 2.5 Rec
Mike Randle: Mixon has been getting incredible early-season usage, ranking second in snap share (80.2%) and third in opportunity share (86%) among all running backs.
He has only seven targets and six receptions on the season, but the absence of wide receiver Tee Higgins makes this an attractive over. Mixon tallied four receptions for 23 yards in Cincinnati's season-opening win over Minnesota. Now he faces a Jacksonville defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs in 2020 as well as the fifth-most so far this season. Mixon has averaged 3.1 targets per game over his career, including 3.6 targets in games that the Bengals are favored in. And in home games, that number rises even further to 3.7 targets.
We project his receiving total at 2.7 receptions, a full 35% over this prop total. This is a 10 (out of 10) rated prop in our FantasyLabs Player Props Tool, which is powered by Sean Koerner's projections.
