Bengals vs Jaguars Picks | Monday Night Football
Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back for Monday Night Football and find a Bengals vs. Jaguars pick for each side. Be sure to come back every Saturday for picks for the full slate each week.
For now, let's get into my Bengals vs. Jaguars picks on Monday night.
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What you need to know:
- Jake Browning will make his second NFL start as he continues to fill in for Joe Burrow, but the rest of the injury report is fairly encouraging. It looks like Tee Higgins and LB Logan Wilson are good to go for Cincinnati, while Travis Etienne is expected to play for Jacksonville despite limited practices due to a rib injury.
- Home-field advantage for the Jaguars? Not so much. Jacksonville has been significantly worse at home this season. The Jaguars rank 24th on offense and 12th on defense by DVOA at home, compared to 9th and 3rd away from Jacksonville.
- Could this be another primetime under? Primetime unders entered the weekend at 29-10, a 74% hit rate this year after 62% over the last four seasons. Trevor Lawrence home unders are 14-7 for his career (67%), and if this over/under drops to 38, totals at 38 or below this season are 15-3-1 to the under (83%).
How to bet the Bengals: Cincinnati +10 | ML +410 (FanDuel)
This is just too many points for a Bengals team still alive and fighting for their playoff lives. Burrow is out, but his spirit lives on in this team, and Cincinnati has thrived in an underdog role.
All the Bengals' skill-position weapons give the offense a chance to produce as Browning gets more comfortable — Cincy could hang around and maybe even steal a win.
Cincinnati's defense has cratered against the run, but with Etienne banged up and the Jaguars' poor running up the middle — where the Bengals are at their worst — it'll be up to the pass defense to hang.
Jacksonville's passing attack has been inconsistent and Trevor Lawrence is 1-5 ATS as a favorite of over four points (17%), and he's lost three of those six games outright as a big favorite.
Lawrence and the Jaguars need to prove they're worthy of being such heavy favorites. This is just too many points for a talented Bengals team that's not dead — this game reeks of ruining end-of-week teasers and parlays.
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Engram has burned us the last few weeks, but bettors need to have a short memory — thus, we're going back to the well.
The Bengals defense is third worst against tight ends by DVOA and bottom three in fantasy points, receptions and yards allowed to the position.
Cincinnati has been eminently beatable over the middle. Just look at notable receiving lines we've seen against the Bengals by tight ends in the last five games alone:
- Pat Freiermuth 9/120
- Dalton Schultz 4/71
- Dalton Kincaid 10/81
- George Kittle 9/149
Engram's production has been down lately, but the targets are still there. He has at least four receptions in every game this season, a floor that puts us one catch from the over, and he's averaging 6.4 catches. He's hit 7-plus catches four times already, so sprinkle the +500 escalator.
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My thoughts: Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions (-103) | 7+ catches (+425) escalator
Monday looks like a fun sports night with Monday Night Football plus our first two NBA In-Season Tournament knockout games.
I don't have a great feel for a side in MNF, but I need a little action to hold my interest so let's play the Engram props.
The Bengals have been getting shredded by tight ends. I'm tempted by something like a 7/100 escalator given those lines, but Engram's YPC has been so blah that I'll stick with receptions.
