Bengals vs Jaguars Player Prop: Tee Higgins
Higgins is returning from a hamstring injury that prevented him from playing the last three games. He was finally able to return to practice last Thursday but was still limited.
Higgins got in a full practice on Friday, but I'd imagine he doesn’t see his typical 85% route participation in his return since there's a chance he could aggravate the injury (hamstrings are tricky).
It’s also a matchup against a Jaguars defense that plays zone at the fourth-highest rate. Higgins is the only (main) Bengals pass-catcher that has a lower yards per route run rate against zone. He’s also likely going to be the main pass catcher impacted by Joe Burrow’s injury since he typically sees most of his targets down the field.
Higgins average separation of 2.3 yards is the sixth-lowest among qualified pass-catchers. I can’t imagine Jake Browning willing to throw low-percentage contested passes to Higgins as often as Burrow would.
The Jags defense allows a ton of receiving yards to opposing RBs. I think we see Browning dumping it off quite a bit and this is a better matchup for Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd instead of Higgins.
I'm projecting Higgins for 3.2 receptions and a 60% chance to stay under 3.5 receptions, but he has a much lower floor than normal in this spot.
This number is available at bet365, ESPN Bet and DraftKings.
