The NFL playoffs are here!
For the second consecutive season, we are treated to six playoff games for the upcoming Wild Card Weekend. Only the No. 1 seeds in each conference (Tennessee and Green Bay) earned a bye to next week's Divisional Round.
With six games on the Saturday-Monday slate, there are a plethora of betting opportunities. In addition the traditional sides and totals, we have some tremendous value with player props for each team.
Let's take a look at my favorite NFL player props for the opening game of the weekend: Raiders at Bengals.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Props: Bengals-Raiders
Derek Carr Under 260.5 Passing Yards (PointsBet)
This total is greatly inflated as a result of Derek Carr's last three regular-season games. Carr averaged a whopping 401 passing yards in the Raiders' final three games against Miami, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Two of those games were not only played at home, but went to overtime.
During the season, Carr went under this number in eight games, including the Raiders' Week 11 home loss to these Bengals. Carr completed 19 of 27 passes for just 215 yards in a 32-13 blasting by Cincinnati.
Another huge factor is the weather. Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic researched this little nugget about Carr:
The high Saturday is slated to be 27 degrees.
Zac Taylor on Monday said smiling, "it's not a disadvantage."
Derek Carr for his career in games where kickoff temp was even 37 degrees or less?
0-5, never scored more than 17 points, one game with a passer rating over 78.
— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) January 11, 2022
The Raiders realize they will need to run the ball effectively to win in the frigid temperatures in Cincinnati. Over their last three games, the Raiders ran the ball on exactly 50% of their offensive plays, up from their seasonal average of 38.2%.
Carr is projected for 36.2 pass attempts on our FantasyLabs Player Props tool. His seasonal average of 7.7 yards per attempt would put him at 278.7 passing yards. However, assuming that number drops against a quality playoff opponent, on the road, in freezing temperatures, Carr fails to crest this prop with just a 7.19 yards per attempt average.
I'm projecting a physical run-oriented attack by both offenses, and have no faith in Carr to beat this number at PointsBet.
C.J. Uzomah Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
I love betting an over on a player who has been unproductive the past few games. Yet, over the last three weeks, C.J. Uzomah is still averaging more receiving yards per game (28.7) than this prop total.
Las Vegas allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including 10 touchdowns. The Bengals destroyed the Raiders by such a wide margin in Week 11, that Uzomah managed just two receptions for nine total yards.
With defenses focusing most of their attention on dynamic wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Uzomah has quietly seen at least six targets in five of the past six games. He also carries a solid 78.8% snap share on the season, 11th-most among all tight ends.
Uzomah is always on the field, is averaging 30.8 receiving yards per game, and is facing one of the most tight end-friendly defenses in the league. Despite the weather report, Uzomah doesn't need much to beat this number.
Josh Jacobs Under 3.5 Receptions (DraftKings)
Josh Jacobs has been used as a sporadic target in the passing game, but not nearly enough to bet the over on this reception total.
Jacobs has gone under this total in seven games, and is averaging just 3.6 receptions per game on the season. This number is inflated as a result of a nine-reception performance against Washington in Week 13.
I expect to see more of Jalen Richard and a heavy focus on Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller in the short-to-intermediate area of the field.
The juice is high on this prop at most books, hovering around -140 at DraftKings and BetMGM. I would even consider an alternate line of under 2.5 receptions if it becomes available. We have Jacobs projected for just 2.5 receptions on Sean Koerner's Player Props Tool at Fantasy Labs.
Joe Burrow Under 9.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
The last thing the Bengals want to see is their franchise quarterback running in the bitter cold against a physical Las Vegas defense. To win this game? I don't think they will need it.
Joe Burrow has rushed for double-digits yards in only six of this 16 games this season. This number is inflated because Burrow's rushing yardage totals for the past three games of the regular season were 25, 11 and 10 yards.
The strategy changes in the playoffs and with a substantial cadre of running backs in Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans, there is no need for Burrow to look for running lanes.
We can always gain a few yards back with a couple last-second kneel downs, providing some extra late-game outs if Burrow gets over this number. In their first matchup, Burrow barely beat this number with 11 yards. I'm taking the under of 9.5 yards at BetMGM, and would consider the under 8.5 yards at FanDuel for -110 as well.
We project Burrow for just 7.5 rushing yards on our Player Props Tool.
