The wild-card showdown between the Bengals and Raiders features two teams with solid run defenses that struggle through the air, while both offenses are better at passing the ball. That said, Las Vegas has found recent success on the ground.
That will be the theme of this parlay, as we build around a game that sees the Bengals' explosive offense force Las Vegas to throw the ball and chase points. Let's correlate our bets around that scenario, in order to limit how much we need to go right for this parlay to hit.
A full breakdown of this game can be found here.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting same-game parlays here.
Bengals-Raiders Same-Game Parlay
Bengals (-5.5)
Let's keep it simple to start. Las Vegas has been one of the luckier teams in the NFL, with a 10-7 record despite a -65 scoring differential on the year. The Raiders also lost to the Bengals by 19 points in their first meeting, and that game was in Las Vegas.
Cincinnati has also played much better down the stretch, with its passing attack living up to preseason expectations. The Bengals should be able to put up a lot of points here, and I'd take their spread as long as it stays within a touchdown. (The alternate spread in Caesars Same-Game Parlay is currently 7.5, if that moves to seven or less, I'd switch to that for the better odds.)
Alternate Total Points Over 47.5
The last meeting between these teams produced 45 total points. Since then, both offenses have shown signs of improvement. The Raiders in particular have been encouraging offensively, scoring 58 points over their last two games.
Las Vegas also got Darren Waller back last week. He didn't show much in his first game back, but he should be closer to full strength for this one.
This is a conservative line of course, with the total currently sitting at 49-49.5 points, depending on the book. Still, it brings our running odds up to +255, and we aren't done here.
Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
In the 11 games before Waller's injury, Carr threw at least two passing touchdowns in seven of them. He also threw two last week with Waller back — for the first time since the star tight end initially departed the lineup. There's a lot to like about this leg, especially paired with the Bengals to cover the spread.
Remember, we're building around Cincinnati's offense getting out to a lead here. The Bengals pass defense ranks 24th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, but they rank 13th against the run. Coupling that with a Bengals lead should mean more chances for Carr to score through the air. This leg is +105 on its own, which is a slight value in our Prop Projections for this game. It's a big value in this parlay though, considering the type of game we're expecting.
Joe Mixon Under 19.5 Rushing Attempts
Mixon had a two-game stretch in the middle of the season that saw him rack up 58 rushing attempts. However, outside of those games he's averaging only 16.7 per contest. While we're building around a comfortable Bengals win, that was the case against the Ravens in Week 16 — and it led to Mixon carrying the ball only 18 times.
Additionally, Mixon is coming off of the COVID-19 list (activated Tuesday). We've seen limited workloads on players returning from the list in the past, though it's impossible to say how sick Mixon actually was. This leg is likely to hit if the game is close — causing the Bengals to lean on the pass. It's also likely to hit in a blowout, as it would be foolish to overwork Mixon.
