Bengals vs. Titans Odds
| Bengals Odds | +3.5 |
| Titans Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 47.5 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
Derrick Henry has missed nine weeks of action and won't likely be 100% when he returns to action tomorrow afternoon, but that hasn't stopped bettors from dropping a lot of cash on him.
Henry to score a touchdown is the most popular prop by far for Saturday's game between the Bengals and Titans, according to PointsBet's tracking data.
The All-Pro running back broke his foot in late October, when he was on pace to break the all-time rushing record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984.
So, despite the uncertainty regarding how functional the league's best running back will be on Saturday, bettors have been hammering his TD prop without reservations.
Bengals vs. Titans Most Popular NFL Player Props
- Derrick Henry to score a touchdown at any time (-180)
- Ja'Marr Chase to score a touchdown at any time (+115)
- Joe Mixon to score a touchdown at any time (-105)
Odds and data are according to PointsBet.
While Henry did score a touchdown in four of the eight games he's played in this season, that implies that the odds should be closer to +100. That means there's negative expected value — and quite a bit of it — at its current market price of -180.
With a surgically repaired foot, no game-time experience in more than two months and a decent Bengals run defense, I just don't see any value betting Henry's TD prop, especially at minus-money.
The value lies with Cincinnati's skill-position players.
Chase has scored a TD in nine out of 18 games played this season, meaning his implied odds are somewhere closer to even money, too. While his line at +115 is enticing, there's negative EV on touchdown props for wide receivers and tight ends.
The better betting edge is with Mixon's touchdown prop. He's scored in 11 out of 17 games this season, but has done so only once in his last five games. Mixon is due for some degree of positive regression, and facing a middling Tennessee run defense certainly helps.
His implied odds to score on Saturday are closer to -180 than -105. This is the guy, after all, who scored TDs in nine straight games earlier this season.
Mixon will still get fed the ball plenty on Saturday. His touches haven't dropped during his TD slump. But, as with all touchdown props, there's a high-degree of variability that make them hard to handicap.
While Mixon's prop provides the best value on this list, don't bomb away on it more than your usual unit-sized bet.
