The five most valuable props for Saturday night's divisional round matchup between the Jaguars and Chiefs target Patrick Mahomes and Kadarius Toney, according to the Action Network's predictive analytics.
The algorithms consider those the top picks, but the top five also include two picks that might be flying under your radar.
And the picks on Mahomes aren't necessarily bullish about his prospects this week, either — at least relative to the market.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Jaguars vs. Chiefs
- Kadarius Toney under 32.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Patrick Mahomes under 25.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes under 27.5 completions -120 (DraftKings)
- Jamal Agnew under 5.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling under 2.5 receptions -120 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Friday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices, according to our predictive models.
The most valuable prop for the weekend is on Toney to receive for 32 or fewer yards.
The reemergent Chiefs receiver is projected to catch for just 21 yards on Saturday. That gives this prop roughly 20% in betting edge.
Effectively, you'll be receiving a 20% discount from the fair value price.
Another way to think about it: You're accumulating 20% in expected value by making that pick. Over the long run, if you exclusively bet on things that provide positive expected value, you're all but assured to make a profit. In the short term, of course, variance is a constraint.
The next two most valuable props target Patrick Mahomes. The quarterback is expected to have just 21 yards on a 25.5 rushing yard total. That gives the under for that prop a roughly 12% betting edge.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes to record under 25.5 rushing yards -114 |
And Mahomes is only expected to throw for 25 completions relative to a 27.5 total. That has a 10% edge.
Jamal Agnew is expected to haul in just three yards on average — essentially, zero or one receptions — on Saturday. His under on receiving yards at 5.5 has an edge of 9%.
And Marquez Valdes-Scantling is expected to put up about 1.9 receptions. His total of u2.5 gives you about 4% in edge.
