Squares pools usually come up once a year, and that's for the Super Bowl. I've identified the Super Bowl squares that you should be targeting when you sign up for yours this week.
I have five projections, one for the entire game if you only get to pick for the entire game and four for the end of each quarter.
I made these projections by simulating Chiefs vs. Eagles 10,000 times. Ironically, there hasn't been much of a difference between each of the last three Super Bowls, all of which have had similar spreads under a field goal with totals that sit in the high 40s.
Let's get into which are the best Super Bowl squares for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
Entire Game
These projections are for if you're picking squares for a pool with payouts after each quarter. The percentages listed below are the chances that you will have a winner in any of the four quarters.
As you’d expect, the most common numbers are 0, 3, 4 and 7. There’s no huge surprise there. Following those are 6, 1, 8 then 9.
If you’re able, you should do your best to avoid 2 and 5.
First Quarter
It should come as no surprise that 0-0 is the square with the highest-probability of winning, followed by variations of 0s, 3s and 7s.
Scoring variance increases as the game progresses, so the probability for the first quarter are more limited and straightforward than the rest of the game.
Halftime
We still see 0s and 7s as the highest-percentage numbers here, but there is expected to be more scoring in the second quarter, which will decrease their probabilities.
Third Quarter
These numbers aren't too different from last year's. The number that declines the most is 3, which would require either team kicking multiple field goals or one team struggling mightily on offense.
Final Score
Obviously, the final score is the least predictable given the amount of scoring variance that takes place throughout an NFL game. You'll probably want to target combinations of 0s, 3s, 4s and 6s here.
