The revenge factor isn't one I ever really consider when handicapping player prop bets. If it such a thing exists, it's difficult to quantify.
But when those narratives are backed by the numbers, sign me up.
This week, I'm looking at two potential revenge spots — Dion Lewis and Donte Moncreif — but not just because they're facing their former teams.
We'll also check in with one head to head prop bet, and you can check out a bunch more of our favorite Week 10 head to heads over at Bet the Prop.
Here are the records on the year:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 176-85 (66%)
- Article picks : 27-9 (75%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 197-140 (58%)
Titans RB Dion Lewis
Over 4 Receptions (-115)
Lewis looks like a solid value in this spot, and any potential revenge narratives are just icing on the cake.
- The Patriots give up 5.8 receptions to running backs per game, 12th most in the league.
- New England ranks fifth in overall scoring and is a 7-point favorite, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Lewis.
- Lewis appears to have seized the Titans' backfield, with snap rates of 84% and 63% over the past two weeks compared to 20% and 34% for an ineffective Derrick Henry.
The diminutive back needs less volume than others to get the same job done. Among all running backs with at least 20 targets, his 89% catch rate is the best in the league.
Betting the over on Lewis receptions would've netted you a 4-1 record this season.
I'd play it to 4.5 receptions, but I'd want something close to plus odds to do that. At this line, I'd pay up to -122 vig.
Jaguars WR Donte Moncreif
Over 3.5 Receptions (-140)
Here's another potential revenge spot, which has the support of several trends.
Moncrief faces his old club just as he's he's taking over as his new team's top receiver.
- Over the past month, Moncreif leads the Jaguars in market share of Air Yards and market share targets.
- He's pacing the team in targets, receptions, yards, average depth of target, and yards after catch over that time.
- In the four weeks leading up to the bye, his 35 targets ranked 12th best among all wide receivers.
He also pops as the top buy-low player in Josh Hermsmeyer's predictive Air Yards model for Week 10.
Playing on the fast track in Indianapolis doesn't hurt, and neither does the fact that the Jaguars are 3-point underdogs against the league's seventh-highest-scoring team.
Moncreif has at least four receptions in four-straight games, and I'm surprised to see this line at 3.5. I'd happily play it to four.
Bears WR Allen Robinson
Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Robinson returns from a two-week absence to face a Detroit defense giving up the fewest receptions and fewest yards to opposing receivers.
Top corner Darius Slay will sit this one out, providing a little extra cushion, but Robinson's ability to take advantage is questionable. Even before the balky groin, he'd gone for 50 receiving yards or fewer in three of six outings, averaging 47.5 yards per game.
Most worrisome is his diminishing involvement in the offense. After target counts of seven, 14, and seven in his first three games, Robinson had four, six, and five looks in the subsequent three weeks. His target share never topped 20% over that span.
The forecast predicts gusts of up to 15 mph for the Windy City on Sunday, just one more factor working against Robinson.
With Sean Koerner projecting 39.6 yards, this is one of the best bets in the prop tool. I'd play the number to 47.5 and would pay the take up to -130.
Nick Chubb > David Johnson, Carries
(-152 @ Betonline)
This one comes via the Custom Player Prop Builder at Betonline.
Game script is huge in handicapping player props, and Sunday's game between the Chiefs and Cardinals serves up an extreme example. Arizona is a 17-point road underdog. They've already been blown out several times this year, and this one could get out of hand early against the league's highest scoring offense (36.3 PPG).
Johnson is averaging 15.3 carries on the year, but the Cardinals simply can't stick to the run if it plays out to expectation. Attacking the Chiefs in the passing game, where they've given up the second-most receptions and yards to opposing running backs, would seem a superior tactic.
Meanwhile, Chubb has quickly become one of our most bankable backs:
- Since taking over as the Browns' starter, is averaging 19.3 carries per game.
- Over those three weeks, he's second in total carries behind Adrian Peterson.
Sean Koerner projects Chubb for the second-most carries in the league this week with 19.7, while giving Johnson 16 rushes. I'd be willing to pay this to -160.
