Heading into NFL Week 18, I made the case for betting the 49ers to win the Super Bowl and NFC Championship because I saw value in their odds at +5000 and +2500, respectively.
I'm not hedging my NFC bet now.
I covered this at length on The Action Network Podcast, but I'm not hedging my +2500 NFC title bet because I love this matchup for the 49ers and effectively have a +2500 moneyline ticket.
If you want to lock in a profit this Sunday and already have one unit on those +2500 odds for them to win the NFC, you could bet 15 units on the Rams' -170 moneyline and lock in about an 8.5-unit profit regardless of the outcome before kickoff.
That's your option if you want to get out. But I'm not personally wanting to walk away with 8.5 units when I could win triple that in a matchup I like for the 49ers. I would have to bet 16.7 units on their +150 moneyline as of writing to win as much as I could win with my one-unit futures ticket.
I'm not giving up the value.
You do have one other option, though, which is a live hedge.
It's tough to hedge in this game with the Rams moneyline at -170 as of writing (check real-time NFL odds here). But an early 49ers lead could give you the option to bet the Rams at a plus-number, which would change the math meaningful and give you a better opportunity.
You could also hedge if you don't feel good about the Niners early in this game. For me, that would be if LT Trent Williams is ineffective and their offensive line is getting dominated by Aaron Donald and Von Miller. That's my one concern, so if the Rams are winning in both trenches early on, I may look for a live hedge opportunity.
I'm prepared to let my NFC championship ticket ride, though I may nibble on a Super Bowl hedge before Sunday.
We can bet the "Chiefs to beat 49ers" at +400 odds as an exact outcome at DraftKings. And if that ends up being the Super Bowl matchup, I'll expect the Chiefs to be closer to -200 moneyline favorites by kickoff. So if you also have a +5000 ticket on a Niners Super Bowl win, you could bet a few units on those +400 exact outcome odds and lock in a pretty sizable profit as long as the 49ers and Chiefs come through Sunday.
As an example, you could bet three units on those +400 odds and it would effectively act as a 49ers-Chiefs moneyline parlay, locking in either +11 units for a Chiefs win or +47 for a Niners win. Of course, you would lose everything if the 49ers lose this Sunday, but I'm all in on San Francisco.
New to betting? The 49ers' +5000 Super Bowl odds that Brandon Anderson bet mean that a $100 bet would net a $5,000 profit if they win it all. Convert more odds here.
