Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
Sunday was a big day for the big dogs.
The story of the season continued in Week 3 as teams getting at least six points went a perfect 3-0 against the spread and straight up. Underdogs of six-plus points are now 11-1 ATS and 7-5 SU on the season. The only team to cover thus far was the Jets on Thursday Night Football as they cruised to a 24-3 win over the Patriots as six-point favorites.
Big dogs weren’t just covering through the first two weeks; they were doing so by 9.5 ppg, which is the best in NFL history. However, despite all that, the public refuses to back them and keeps going chalk.
The Buccaneers covering as 6.5-point favorites over the Broncos was the public’s favorite play of the week, leading the way with the most number of bets (77%) and money (82%). Instead, they were blown out of the water in a 26-7 loss.
The public also loved the Browns covering six points at home against the Giants with 60% of all tickets and 56% of the money on it. However, Daniel Jones and the Giants dropped 21 points on them while the defense had eight sacks as Big Blue won 21-15.
The Rams closed out the big dogs’ successful afternoon with a wild rally to stun the 49ers. Los Angeles trailed by 10 points with 6:15 remaining before scoring 13 straight to close it out for a 27-24 win. The dramatic win crushed the public as 69% of bets and 64% of the money was on San Francisco, covering six points.
With all that in mind, it’s worth noting that the Bengals are 7.5-point favorites over the Commanders as of Sunday night heading into Monday’s showdown. Still, yet again, the public is all over Cincinnati, covering 74% of bets and 70% of the money on it.
Meanwhile, the Bills are 5.5-point favorites over the Jaguars as of Sunday night, so there’s a reasonable chance it reaches six by kickoff. The public isn't fazed by the 5.5-point spread as 73% of tickets and 60% of the handle is on the Bills to cover.
