The Buffalo Bills (10-6) have some of the most confusing results out of any Super Bowl contender, with losses to the Jaguars and Steelers to go along with a 41-15 drubbing at the hands of the Colts.
Frankly, they've looked bad at various points this season.
But the advanced statistics have a pretty clear counter — the Bills are one of the best teams in football.
That may not be very convincing to the casual viewer, but the numbers are clear.
The Bills are the No. 3 team in overall DVOA. They're the No. 4 team in total Expected Points Added. They have the No. 2 (DVOA) or No. 3 (EPA per play) defense in football.
And despite their minor foibles offensively, Buffalo is ranked No. 4 (EPA) or No. 8 (DVOA) on that side of the ball.
All of the Bills’ wins this season have come by double-digits. And in each of those wins, Buffalo had complete or near-complete control of the game by the time the fourth quarter rolled around.
Dominating teams — not winning close games — is the best metric in deciding which teams are Super Bowl contenders and not pretenders.
As long as Josh Allen controls some of his turnover tendencies, this team will make a deep run. Each of the Bills' six losses have seen Allen commit at least one turnover. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 4-0 when Allen doesn't throw an interception or fumble the football.
Buffalo will likely be the three-seed in the AFC — with seven teams across the NFL sporting better records — but that hasn't stopped sharps and sportsbooks from pricing the Bills more in line with the analytics.
Buffalo is the third-best favorites to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings. At FanDuel, it's tied for third.
Buffalo Bills Odds to Win Super Bowl
| Sportsbook | Bills Odds to Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|
| DraftKings | +750 (3rd) |
| FanDuel | +750 (T-3rd) |
| Caesars | +800 (4th) |
| BetRivers | +800 (T-3rd) |
It's a steep price for a team that may need to win two road games to get to Inglewood, but at +800 (bet $100, win $800), it might be an okay flier if you're gungho on the analytics.
You will be able to mobile sports bet at four sportsbooks in New York state beginning at 9 a.m. on Saturday, Jan. 8. If you pre-register beforehand, you can gain $100 in free bets at both DraftKings and FanDuel.
This story will be updated with more, post-registration bonuses as we learn about them.
Buffalo Bills Odds to Win AFC Championship
| Sportsbook | Bills Odds to Win AFC |
|---|---|
| DraftKings | +300 (2nd) |
| FanDuel | +350 (2nd) |
| Caesars | +350 (2nd) |
| BetRivers | +350 (2nd) |
These odds, too, are steep. You're better off in the long-run betting on each individual Bills playoff game.
The Bills' most likely route toward the Super Bowl this postseason will be as follows, assuming all the favorites win on Sunday:
- Home versus Chargers or Patriots
- Away versus Chiefs
- Away versus Titans or home versus Patriots/Bengals/Chargers/Raiders/Steelers
The Bills will be favorites for their opener, likely by a mark of around -150 to -175. It won't be easy, but those opponents are more than doable.
If they scoot past the Wild Card Round, they'll return to Kansas City, where they dominated the Chiefs in a 38-20 victory in October.
While that was a different iteration of this Kansas City team, their terrible defense is still intact. If the Bills can again take advantage of a newly erratic Patrick Mahomes — whose Chiefs have the most turnovers this season among contenders — that's a very winnable game.
And I'd imagine the Bills will be roughly +180 underdogs for that contest, so you'll be getting very solid value there.
Then, the AFC Championship Game would be desirable one way or another.
Tennessee is set to become the worst No. 1 seed in DVOA history. That dates back until 1985.
It's why I'm fading the Titans, whoever they play host to in the divisional round, and especially if I'm getting plus-money. If Tennessee wins to advance to the AFC Championship Game — and faces the Bills — I'm putting the house on Buffalo.
The Bills dominate the Titans in pretty much every major offensive and defensive category. Buffalo would likely be a road favorite for that one, but laying the points at somewhere around -3 would be a lock.
There is a scenario in which Buffalo travels to face No. 1 seeded Tennessee in the divisional round, but it would require a depleted Bengals team that's resting its starters to beat the Browns on Sunday. If you're bullish on the Bills, root for that scenario to take place.
If the Bills play at home against the Bengals or a wild card team in the AFC Championship Game, they'd likely be even bigger favorites at around -5.5.
Parlaying those three games together would give you much higher odds than the +350 that's being offered on the market now. So don't make that futures bet right now. Instead, bet individual games — especially during the divisional round, when the Bills will have great value on the road.
