The Bills were among the Super Bowl favorites at the start of the season, then longshots to make the playoffs midway through the season with a 6-6 record. However, they won five-straight to win the AFC East, and are once again strong contenders to win it all after beating the Steelers, 31-17.
Buffalo had the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl prior to Super Wild Card Weekend (+650), and still have the third-best (+500) after beating Pittsburgh, according to DraftKings. They’ll host the Chiefs next week, who have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+700) after manhandling the Dolphins Saturday night.
Josh Allen delivered a gem for backers against the Steelers, which is a rarity considering his failures in similar spots. The Bills closed as 10-point favorites, and Allen lost seven consecutive games against the spread as a double-digit favorite dating back to October of 2022. Ironically enough, that win came in a 38-3 win over these very same Steelers. Allen has cost bettors big in the playoffs in general. He entered the game 2-6 ATS, which was third-worst among quarterbacks over the past 20 years. Only Dak Prescott (1-6 ATS) has been worse.
However, Allen was terrific Monday in less-than-ideal conditions, finishing 21-for-30 for 203 yards and three touchdowns for a 121.8 passer rating. He also ran the ball eight times for 74 yards, including a back-breaking 52-yard touchdown run in the second quarter to give Buffalo an insurmountable 21-0 lead.
Next week’s showdown between the Bills and Chiefs is a highly-anticipated rematch of one of the regular season’s best games. Buffalo pulled out a 20-17 win in a game best remembered for Kadarius Toney’s late-game winning touchdown called back for lining up offsides.
The dramatic win spearheaded a five-game winning streak that saw the 6-6 Bills go from longshots to make the playoffs (20.6% according to NYTimes simulator) to AFC East champions. They were +500 to win the division at the time, but doing so gives them a tremendous shot going forward as Allen and the Bills are incredible at home. Buffalo is 19-3 straight up in their last 22 home games, and 29-6 over their last 35. Meanwhile, Allen’s 35-8 record straight up ranks second in moneyline profitability over the last five years
Kickoff for next week’s game between the second-seeded Bills and third-seeded Chiefs is set for Sunday at 6:30pm ET. Buffalo is instilled as early 2-point favorites while the total’s set at 47.
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