The NFL isn't typically known as a league where blockbuster trades are the norm, but that certainly isn't the case on Wednesday, as ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Buffalo Bills are trading star wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in exchange for draft pick compensation.
Diggs has been a staple of recent Bills teams that have contended for Super Bowls in recent years, but his consistent bickering with quarterback Josh Allen has also been a frequent topic surrounding the team. Say what you will about him, though, hauled in over 100 catches and 1,000 receiving yards in each of his four seasons with the Bills while scoring 37 touchdowns.
On the other side, this is a big move for the Texans, who are looking to capitalize on C.J. Stroud while he's playing on his rookie contract.
Earlier this offseason, Houston traded for running back Joe Mixon. Now, the Texans have added Diggs to a receiver room that already includes Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Dalton Schultz at tight end is also a better-than-average option.
2025 Super Bowl Odds Movement
Following the conclusion of the 2024 Super Bowl, the Bills were listed at a consensus +1000 to win the 2025 Super Bowl, with the Texans listed at +2500.
As of the time of writing at 11:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday morning, the Texans can be found as low as +1400 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. At FanDuel, the Bills are listed at +1300 while the Texans are +1500.
Both teams bowed out of the 2024 playoffs in the Divisional Round, with the Texans losing to the top-seeded Ravens and the Bills losing — once again — to the Chiefs.
2024-25 NFL MVP Odds
Another big shift on odds boards: the MVP race.
Stroud is tied for third on the FanDuel at 10-1. Patrick Mahomes is still favored at +650 and the Diggs-less Josh Allen is +750. Then, it’s Lamar Jackson and Stroud. DraftKings also has Stroud level with Jackson at 10-1, but Joe Burrow is 9-1 and ahead of Jackson and Stroud.
Fantasy Fallout
By Sean Koerner
From a fantasy perspective, I’d say this is a neutral move for Diggs. He’ll remain a No. 1 option in the passing game after this trade.
The two players who get the biggest bumps in this deal are Stroud and Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. Obviously, Buffalo will add a pass catcher before the start of the season, but Kincaid came on late last season and is current Allen’s best option.
For Stroud, it obviously is a huge boost. It’s a decently sized hit to Nico Collins and Tank Dell stock, but the Texans offense appears poised for a big season.
Betting Impact
Houston’s move to trade for Stefon Diggs made NFL shockwaves on Wednesday morning, but one of my favorite rules to betting the NFL year to year is to beware of the offseason.
Each year, there’s a team or two that makes multiple splash acquisitions and sees their odds skyrocket for that upcoming season. The “offseason champion” becomes an extremely public team that often gets overvalued. The 2023 Jets and 2022 Browns immediately come to mind, and both seriously underwhelmed unrealistic expectations in the following season.
The Texans already had a lot of juice from last season, when they went from worst to first in a mediocre AFC South, dominated Cleveland in a playoff game and C.J. Stroud shined en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Their stock was already high and now they’ve added common fantasy names in Diggs and running back Joe Mixon, whose name-brand value surely outpaces their actual value entering 2024.
Parity remains king in the NFL though, and Houston won’t benefit from Jacksonville’s collapse, an Anthony Richardson injury and a last-placed caliber schedule next season. The Texans played one of the league’s easiest schedules last year and now gets Buffalo, Kansas City and Baltimore automatically just by winning the AFC South.
Houston is rightfully the favorite in the AFC South, but I’ll be investing my money elsewhere this fall.
