This matchup brings us a wide variety of options on Bills vs Bengals player props. I'm going to focus on two key players on each offense, although there are smaller numbers that are showing great value across the board, as well. Sign up for Action Labs today to get all of Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon's expert prop projections.
What a way to finish Monday Night Football this season. Let's break down the plays.
Ja'Marr Chase
Under 82.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
I don’t love betting against players like Chase since he’s, well, really good, but both Koerner and Raybon show a slight edge on Chase’s under, with their consensus projection bringing him in at 76.2 receiving yards compared to his 82.5 total at BetMGM. Whether that’s enough of an edge for you to bet him is up to you.
The Bills rank 26th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers this season, but that’s not a fair representation of their current defense. Tre’Davious White resumed a full-time roll in Week 13, and Buffalo has faced the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins and Bears. Three of those teams don’t have receiving corps that put fear into the hearts of defenses. Miami’s duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill did combine for 183 receiving yards and two touchdowns, but not many defenses have slowed them down this season.
Chase has been back for four games now and has gone over this total twice, but he hasn’t in his last two games against the Buccaneers and Patriots. Volume wasn’t the reason for that, though, since he saw 13 and 11 targets in those games.
The thought is White will shadow Chase, although Buffalo may just put him on one side of the field so Tee Higgins isn’t forgotten about. Regardless, one of the Bengals receivers is going to be matched up all night against one of the premier shutdown cornerbacks in the NFL.
James Cook
Over 10.5 Receiving Yards & 26.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
On the receiving yards front, Koerner and Raybon are both projecting Cook for more than 17.5 against the Bengals. They both have Cook pegged for 33 or more rushing yards.
On the ground, Cook has gone over this total four times in his last six games and three of his last four. That coincides with his increase in playing time.
Cook has at least 36% of snaps in each of his last four games. His previous season high was 26%. He has at least five total touches in every game, and two of them saw him hit a double-digit combined carries and receptions.
In the air, Cook has gone over this total just once in his last four games, but he’s gotten multiple targets in three of them.
In those last four games, Cook is averaging 5.97 yards on his 34 carries. Devin Singletary is averaging 5.17 yards per carry on 46 carries in that span, which indicates this is close to a split in terms of backfield touches. Singletary has played the majority of snaps during this span, though.
For the rushing yards, Cook just needs five carries to clear this line based on his recent output. It’s a safe bet he’ll get a few more than that, though. Two receptions should do the trick in the air.
