Dalton Kincaid
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +225
Kincaid finally scored last week against a tough Buccaneers defense. No Dawson Knox means he'll likely be playing over 90% of snaps.
The rookie's got a great matchup on Sunday Night Football as the Bengals have given up four touchdowns to tight ends this season. They are 29th in DVOA against tight ends this season.
The golden rule was we take odds over +200 for Knox. The torch has now been passed now to Kincaid.
Tyler Boyd
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +265
I'm riding the hot hand with Tyler Boyd, who's on a two-game scoring streak.
As the Bengals' primary slot receiver, he rarely comes off the field. The last time the Bills and Bengals played, Boyd scored in the first quarter. That game, of course, ended up getting canceled after the Damar Hamlin injury.
Josh Allen
2+ Touchdowns +1200
This is a bet on Allen taking over in the red zone.
The Bengals are top 10 in DVOA vs. the pass but 25th in DVOA vs the run. Allen has 13 red-zone carries this year and five rushing TDs.
With the high stakes of this game, I expect Allen to get at least one rushing TD.
Tee Higgins
2+ Touchdowns +1200
The Bills are 22nd in DVOA to WR2s and 24th vs. the deep pass.
Tee Higgins leads the team in aDOT and he already has a two-TD game this season. Ja'Marr Chase is the obvious choice, but I think the Bills double him as much as possible.
