James Cook Receiving Yards
| Prop | James Cook Over 10.5 Receiving Yards |
| Matchup | Bills vs. Bengals |
| Day, Time | Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Cook has been held under this total in each of his last three games, but I see this as a great buy-low opportunity.
The Bills drafted Cook in the second round, and he was arguably the best pass-catching running back in the 2022 class. However, he was only running a route on 13% of Josh Allen's dropbacks up until Week 12.
Over the last four games, though, Cook has run a 38% routes run rate, essentially splitting receiving work with Devin Singletary.
Pick: James Cook Over 10.5 Receiving Yards |
The reason he's only cleared this total in the last three games is because of the Bills' run-heavy offense during that span. Allen is averaging just 208 passing yards in the last three weeks, although there's reason to believe Buffalo will look to air it out more against the Bengals.
Cincinnati ranks 14th in DVOA against the run, but the defense was without D.J. Reader for six games earlier this season. His presence is massive, as teams average 4.6 yards per rush against the Bengals without him on the field and 3.6 when he is.
I think the Bills use dump-off passes to Singletary and Cook as an extension of their running game tonight.
I'm projecting Cook's median closer to 15.5 yards, with a 60% chance he clears 10.5.
| Receiving Yards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 9.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 10.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 11.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 12.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 13.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 14.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 15.5 | 50% | 50% |
