The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 26, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kickoff for Bills-Chiefs is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on CBS.
Beyond NFL spreads and total bets, I'm looking at Bills vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown scorers — I have picks for each team on Sunday night, plus analysis on how I would approach Josh Allen TD props.
Bills vs. Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Picks
- Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown (+200; bet365)
- Noah Gray Anytime Touchdown (+550; BetMGM)
- Dawson Knox Anytime Touchdown (+700; FanDuel)
Josh Allen Anytime TD Analysis
The AFC matchup we’ve been waiting for and a rematch from Week 11, the Chiefs and Bills game should feature plenty of touchdowns.
When they played in the regular season, the final score was 30-21; the game was a lot closer than that until Josh Allen ran for a game-sealing TD.
Allen is unsurprisingly the odds-on favorite for an anytime TD in this game — he's rushed for a touchdown in five of 12 career playoff games, including two against the Chiefs in last year's Divisional Round.
Do I think he scores again this week? Yes, but I don’t love the price of +100. If I’m betting Allen, I’m likely laddering the Anytime TD and 2 TDs at +700.
Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+200)
For better or worse, this game features A LOT of big names so anytime TD odds will be pretty steamed, such as Allen or Travis Kelce (+130). Since the Chiefs' first Super Bowl run in 2020, Kelce has scored in 12 of the last 16 playoff games and five of the last seven playoff games overall during their current back-to-back Super Bowl runs.
Like Allen, I’m not really interested in betting Kelce unless you get creative like first Chiefs TD (+400) or maybe 2 TDs (+1000).
Instead, let’s redirect our attention to Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (+200).
Full disclosure: I bet on Worthy last week and came away disappointed as he saw four red-zone looks and was tackled at the 1-yard line on one of his receptions. That heartbreak may be enough for bettors stay away from him, but I’m not deterred.
Even if he didn’t score against the Texans, this is still too good of a price. Worthy now has 29 red-zone touches for the season, with six receiving TDs and three rushing TDs and he scored against the Bills when they played in Week 11.
Noah Gray Anytime TD (+550)
My favorite Chiefs long-shot pick for this game is TE Noah Gray (+550), who clearly gets overshadowed playing with Travis Kelce.
Why I like Gray is similar to why I liked — and hit on — Isaiah Likely (+310) last week. Gray plays nearly the same amount of snaps as Kelce and his blocking ability allows him to stay on the field when the Chiefs get into big personnel and want to run the ball.
It’s part of the reason why he was so effective in that Week 11 matchup, when he scored twice because of the attention Kelce draws. The Ravens gave the blueprint on how to attack the smaller Bills defense and if Mark Andrews was able to hold onto the ball, we may have a completely different matchup for this game.
Dawson Knox Anytime TD (+700)
With the way their offense has evolved throughout the season, betting on a Bills pass-catcher can be tricky because outside threats like Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman have seen little to no action.
Of the two, Coleman would be my choice as Cooper has seen little to no targets. In both Bills playoff games, it was slot WR Khalil Shakir (+250) who led the team in targets; that’s who I like to score but I don’t love this price at +250 and would wait until he gets closer to +300 or better.
And, of course, my guy TE Dawson Knox is my favorite Bills long-shot pick at +700. Fellow TE Dalton Kincaid has struggled vs. man defenses and has actually been playing less snaps than Knox over the last five games.
