Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Prediction
The following are the projected odds for Bills vs. Chiefs.
| Bills Odds | +3 |
| Chiefs Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 50.6 |
| Odds according to the Action Network | |
The Chiefs are projected to be -3 favorites when they host the Bills, yet again, during the regular season.
The fair value odds are according to the Action Network's data team, which has considered all associated quantitative and qualitative aspects of every NFL regular season matchup for this upcoming season and developed a fair value spread for each contest.
The matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will have its exact date and time announced on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.
The fair value line of -3 accounts for home field advantage, current rosters and current injury situations.
On the moneyline, the equilibrium line for the Chiefs is -152. Conversely, the Bills should be priced at +152. Any market price longer than those figures would represent positive expected value once odds come out on Thursday night.
The Chiefs are projected to put up 26.8 points against the Bills' defense, which finished fourth in the NFL in DVOA in 2022. The Bills are projected to post 23.8 points against what had been a middling Chiefs defense.
The two teams faced off in the regular season last year — also in Kansas City. For that contest, the Bills closed as -2.5 favorites and covered in a 24-20 win.
Their previous matchup was also in Kansas City — during the 2021 AFC Divisional Round. The all-time classic — one of the best NFL postseason games of all-time — saw four lead changes and 25 points scored in the final two minutes.
The Chiefs won the overtime thriller, though the Bills never received possession due to outdated OT rules, which changed after that contest. Now, both teams must touch the ball in postseason overtime games.
