Bills vs. Chiefs odds for the AFC Championship Game have remained pretty steady since the matchup was set last weekend, although we saw our first bit or noteworthy movement on Friday.
The line opened at Chiefs -1.5 and stayed that way at most sportsbooks until Friday. There were a couple of Chiefs -2 lines out there until a shift across the board took place.
The new consensus Bills vs. Chiefs spread is Chiefs -2, although FanDuel is holding out with -1.5 and DraftKings went all the way up to -2.5. The total for the game also went up from 47.5 to 48.5, which is now what is posted everywhere, according to our NFL odds page.
With the movement on the spread, the moneylines for the AFC Championship Game have adjusted, as well. At most sportsbooks, the Chiefs are -130 to win outright and the Bills are +110. FanDuel is slightly off at Chiefs -132 and Bills +112.
Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Preview
According to Action Network's public betting page, the action on the spread is coming in on Buffalo with 81% of bets and 83% of money. On the moneyline, though, 57% of bets and 50% of money are on the Chiefs.
The trends generally say you should bet on Patrick Mahomes here. He’s 7-0 both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) when he’s listed as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal, according to our Evan Abrams. He’s also 23-2 SU when the temperature of 40 or fewer degrees, and his last such loss came in his first-ever AFC Championship Game back in January 2019 against Tom Brady and the Patriots.
Allen, though, isn’t exactly the kind of quarterback you’d be excited about fading. The Chiefs are allowing fewer than 20 points per game this season, and Allen is 27-7 SU against such opposing defenses.
Also, the weather won’t be a problem for Allen, who is 17-4 SU when the kickoff temperature is freezing or colder.
Finally, after a season where betting favorites was the way to go, it has been the ‘dogs who have thrived in the playoffs. Favorites in night games were 47-12 during the regular season, but they’re just 1-4 in the playoffs.
