Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every slate and primetime game throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has a 412-310-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Bills-Chiefs Prop Bet
Devin Singletary Over 28.5 Rush Yards
The forecast for Sunday Night Football calls for showers and potentially thunderstorms. It’s likely going to force both the Bills and Chiefs to lean on their run game a bit more tonight.
The Chiefs are typically the easiest team to run on, so it’s no surprise to see them currently ranked 32nd in DVOA against the run. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have formed a near 50/50 time share, yet Moss’s prop is 8 yards higher. However, Singletary is the more explosive runner and is averaging 5.3 yards a rush on the season.
One of the factors Singletary benefits from is he rarely sees eight-plus men in the box. According to Next Gen Stats, he’s only seen eight-plus defenders in the box 14.3% of the time (last season it was 4.5%, second-lowest among qualified RBs). When he’s on the field, the defense tends to assume the play is going to be a pass and it provides Singletary with extra room to run.
I’m projecting his rushing yards closer to 40.5 tonight and would bet this up to 35.5.
Pick: Devin Singletary Over 28.5 Rush Yards (-110) at FanDuel
