In the most highly anticipated game of the Week 6 slate, the Buffalo Bills head to Arrowhead for a date with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have started an extremely entertaining rivalry that should only thrive in years to come. The Bills enter as 2.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 53.5.
Here’s a same-game parlay for the 4:25 p.m. ET showcase.
Bills
ML (-142)
Josh Allen and the Bills are ready for revenge. Kansas City is fresh off a comeback win against Las Vegas on Monday night and now has a short week to prepare for this high-powered Bills offense.
Last week, Kansas City was fortunate to escape with a win. The second half was a complete 180 and Patrick Mahomes willed the Chiefs to victory. However, that type of collapse won’t happen with Allen under center.
While the Chiefs are coming off a grueling game against the Raiders, Buffalo had an easy blowout victory against the Steelers and an extra day of rest.
Additionally, the Bills defense will receive a major boost with safety Jordan Poyer, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and cornerback Christian Benford all returning. Buffalo has the fourth-ranked defense, per PFF, and the second-ranked pass rush.
To me, this matchup comes down to the defense. Both the Bills and Chiefs are hard offenses to stop – especially when they’re in a groove – but the road favorites hold the edge in the defensively.
QuickSlip: Bet the Buffalo ML at FanDuel
Gabriel Davis
Anytime Touchdown (+130)
You had to see this one coming.
Davis put himself on the map in the AFC Divisional Round against Kansas City when he hauled in eight receptions for 201 yards and three touchdowns. And when healthy, he hasn’t missed a beat in 2022.
Last week, Davis racked up 171 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his first week back at full health. Before his injury, in the season opener, he finished with 88 yards and a score.
The Chiefs focus will be on Stefon Diggs and with Josh Allen’s mobility, there should be plenty of opportunities for Davis to find the end zone in what projects to be a high-scoring game.
Davis has scored in seven of his past 11 games and that includes playing through an ankle injury. He is as reliable as it gets and should find the end zone in a pass-heavy offensive script.
Bills -2.5 | Chiefs +2.5
Devin Singletary
Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
Entering the season, Buffalo had a three-headed monster at running back. Five weeks in, Singletary has solidified himself as the starter.
The Bills are a pass-heavy offense that rarely runs the ball – Singletary has cracked double-digit carries just once – but he’s been a threat in the passing game.
Singletary has only gone over this number twice this season, but they both came when he finished with 55+ snaps. In the other three games, Buffalo won by 21 or more and Singletary saw no more than 37 snaps.
Sunday should be a close, high-scoring game and Singletary should benefit. Per our own PropBomb, in close games, Singletary runs an average of 28.5 routes. This is a perfect matchup, too, as Kansas City has allowed the most receiving yards to running backs this season.
Last week? Josh Jacobs finished with 39. The other four? Leonard Fournette (50), Nyheim Hines (23), Austin Ekeler (55) and James Connor (33).
Given the nature of the Bills offense and Kansas City’s struggles against running backs, I love taking a chance on Singletary here. He has surpassed expectations this season and should see plenty of usage once again.
It’s also worth noting that in the Divisional Round game against the Chiefs last season, Singletary caught four passes for 25 yards.
Josh Allen
Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
The main reason Singletary doesn’t get much usage in the run game isn’t only because of the Bills pass-heavy offense. Allen’s mobility also plays a huge factor.
The quarterback has 225 rushing yards on the season and has surpassed this number twice. He put up 42 rushing yards in a blowout win against Pittsburgh last week and finished just shy of 48.5 with 47 against Miami.
It’s no secret just how dominant Allen is on the ground. Against the Chiefs last season, he rushed for 127 yards in two games and went over this number both times.
Per our very own Brandon Anderson, against playoff teams last year, Allen finished with an average of 9.5 rushes for 59 yards. This season, the numbers are extremely similar: 9.7 and 58.
Buffalo saves Allen’s legs for big time games and I expect Sean McDermott to throw the kitchen sink at Kansas City.
Allen will be used early and often and has big-play ability on the ground that could cover half this number in one swing. He isn’t afraid to tuck it and run on blitzes, too.
Trust Allen to get the job done en route to a Buffalo win at Arrowhead.
