Bills vs. Dolphins Odds
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The Bills have dominated their recent matchups with the Dolphins, winning five of the last six games between these AFC East rivals. Buffalo won both games in 2019, each time by double-digits.
Can the Dolphins reverse the trend and find a way to grab a win against one of the favorites to win the AFC Championship?
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills have ranked second and sixth the past two years in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, with one of the best overall pass defenses in the league.
Quarterback Josh Allen put his versatility on display with an overall fantasy QB4 performance in a comfortable 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets. The third-year signal-caller had his first 300-yard passing game with 57 rushing yards and three total touchdowns.
The offseason acquisition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs is already paying dividends. He posted eight receptions for 86 yards while opening up the field for teammate John Brown (six receptions, 70 yards, one touchdown).
Buffalo's dominant performance eliminated the need for fully showcasing its pair of pass-catching running backs. Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss combined for eight receptions but only gained 39 yards.
Both will serve as valuable weapons against a Miami linebacking corps that ranks just 29th by Pro Football Focus this season. In their two games against Miami last season, the Bills found success on the ground, rushing for 5.1 and 4.9 yards per carry in each game, respectively.
The Buffalo pass rush should also enjoy some success against the Miami offensive line. In last year's 37-20 win at Miami, the Bills sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick seven times.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami run defense was skewered for 217 yards and three touchdowns on the ground by the Patriots in Week 1. The Dolphins struggled all game to limit the rushing output of New England quarterback Cam Newton (75 yards and two touchdowns).
The Dolphins secondary didn't allow a ton of yardage, but Newton tallied only four incomplete passes, completing 15-of-19 attempts. If not for rookie wide receiver N'Keal Harry's end-zone fumble, the 21-11 final score would have been much worse.
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Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions and almost lost a fumble. Look for Buffalo's defense to disrupt Fitzpatrick's rhythm all game after he totaled three sacks, one interception and a fumble against the Jets last week.
The Dolphins' rushing attack is in disarray after leading rusher Jordan Howard left the game against the Patriots with a hamstring injury. Both Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida were limited, and Miami averaged only 3.2 yards per carry as a team.
Lead wide receiver DeVante Parker also exited the game with an injury and is listed as questionable for Week 2. Buffalo cornerback Tre'Davious White is one of the league's premier cornerbacks and will severely limit the production of either Parker or second-year wideout Preston Williams.
Bills-Dolphins Pick
The Bills defense has been one of the league's best units under Sean McDermott, and the addition of Diggs has greatly increased Buffalo's big-play ability on offense. The Dolphins found little success in their two games against the Bills last season, allowing over 30 points twice.
Per Bet Labs, the Bills are 3-1 as road favorites in McDermott's tenure as head coach. While it's always tricky giving points on the road in a divisional matchup, Buffalo's balanced offense and strong defensive play will be too much for Miami.
I am laying the 5.5 points in a game I see as a comfortable double-digit win for Buffalo.
PICK: Bills -5.5
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