Our betting analysts have made four Bills vs. Dolphins predictions for Thursday Night Football, which will kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Prime Video. The Dolphins (1-0) are favored by 2.5 points over the Bills (1-0), with the over/under installed at 48.5 points.
Josh Allen led the Bills to a comeback win in the season opener, which saw James Cook and Keon Coleman make big plays down the stretch to beat the Cardinals. The Dolphins also came back to win in Week 1 with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill combining to power the Miami offense. Raheem Mostert will miss this game, though, and De'Von Achane is questionable.
We have expert picks on the spread, total and two player props. Let's dive into our TNF preview to kick off Week 2.
Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions, Picks
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John LanFranca's Bills-Dolphins Pick
Joe Brady has his fingerprints all over this Bills' offense, as the shift to a run-heavy approach from this team after Ken Dorsey's firing in 2023 continues into 2024.
Josh Allen is a huge part of Buffalo's rushing attack, and he has fully made the transition to a more efficient passer who takes fewer chances. In total, Buffalo ran the ball 33 times in Week 1 against the Cardinals with only 23 pass attempts. Allen completed 78.3% of those attempts and averaged 9.7 yards per attempt.
This type of game plan bodes well against a Dolphins run defense I have questions about. Jacksonville gashed Miami for 4.9 yards per attempt and probably should have come away with the victory on the road had it not been for a goal-line fumble by Travis Etienne and a 20% third-down-conversion percentage throughout the game.
In Week 1, the Dolphins ranked 28th in the NFL in the percentage of runs deemed explosive (7.7%). That mainly why Miami gave up 2.69 yards per attempt after contact, which ranked 25th.
Furthermore, the Bills continue to make opposing passers look past their first read at one of the highest rates in the league, ranking second in that category during the 2023 season and 10th in the NFL last week against the Cardinals. It's why Tyreek Hill's two lowest yardage outputs in a single contest of each of the last two seasons came against Buffalo.
I am expecting the Bills to win on the road Thursday night.
Pick: Bills +2.5 (-110)
Billy Ward's Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
In Week 1, the Bills and Dolphins combined to score 54 points in their wins over the Cardinals and Jaguars. This total opened at 52 but has been bet down to 49.
The big reason for that movement, aside from primetime unders being very profitable over the past few years, is the uncertainty in the Dolphins backfield. Raheem Mostert will miss this game, while De’Von Achane sounds like he may be on the wrong side of questionable.
The big line movement is a bit of an overreaction in my mind for a couple of reasons. Rookie speedster Jaylen Wright was drafted as a direct backup for Achane, and the Dolphins skew pass-heavy already, which will help this over.
Also, both of these offenses are already elite in multiple ways. Both teams ranked in the top five in both Pass and Rush DVOA last season, so they can score in many ways.
Pick: Over 48.5 (-112)
Derek Farnsworth's James Cook Player Prop
The Bills took a run-heavy approach against the Cardinals in Week 1. Despite throwing the ball only 23 times, Josh Allen targeted 10 players. He was expected to spread the ball out more with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone, but 10 players getting at least one target doesn't seem sustainable.
The Bills will likely have to air it out more against the Dolphins since this game projects as a shootout. James Cook topped 19 receiving yards in nine of 17 games last season and had at least 14 receiving yards in 12. In his last four games against the Dolphins, Cook has averaged 26.5 receiving yards.
Cook caught all three of his targets in the opener for 32 yards. While nothing jumps out about Travis Etienne's two receptions for 15 yards against the Dolphins in Week 1, it's worth noting that the Jaguars only completed 12 passes and two were to him.
Pick: James Cook Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Charlie DiSturco's Player Prop
I'm very high on James Cook in this Joe Brady-run offense. We saw in Week 1 how often the Bills utilized their star running back with Cook getting 19 rush attempts and three targets in the passing game.
In what should be a tightly contested game, I’m expecting a high usage out of Cook. Last week we saw backups Ray Davis (three carries) and Ty Johnson (two) in a limited fashion. It was Cook with the lion’s share of the snaps (61%).
This is a Bills offense that, under Brady, has seen a huge emphasis in establishing the run, which plays into Cook’s upside perfectly. He ranked in the top 10 in Pro Football Focus' run & offense grade in Week 1.
The Dolphins rush defense struggled against the Jaguars — 24 carries, 4.9 yards per carry — including multiple gains of 10 or more yards. Travis Etienne added a pair of receptions in the eventual comeback win for Miami.
Our Action Pro projections have Cook slated for 68 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards. I like buying the overall stock on Cook since he has upside in both markets. He should see at least 20 touches again on Thursday. Considering that and based on the current number (84.5), Cook needs to average just over four yards per touch. That should be feasible.
This has all the makings of a Cook breakout season. Now that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are out of town, someone else has to step up alongside Allen. Having a dominant run game will help open up the offense.
