In what is setting up to be the most entertaining game of Week 3, the Bills head to Miami for an AFC East bout with the Dolphins. Both teams are undefeated and coming off impressive wins.
Can Miami knock off the Super Bowl favorites at home, or will Buffalo continue to steamroll its competition in 2022?
Here’s a same game parlay to add some extra entertainment to this divisional matchup!
Chase Edmonds
Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert split snaps in Week 2, but in what sets up to be a high-scoring game, Edmonds’ pass-catching abilities will be crucial.
While Edmonds finished with just one reception for eight yards last week, he is the third-most targeted Dolphin.
I expect a bounce-back performance in Week 3, especially in matchup with shootout potential.
As we saw last week against Baltimore, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are constant deep threats. Buffalo's defense will have to shift its attention toward stopping the long ball and drop back into coverage, which leaves Edmonds open for plenty of checkdowns and room underneath.
Edmonds should get plenty of opportunities as the third-down back and could even get some lead-back snaps, too. This number should be in the low 20s considering how many points this game is expected to have.
Jaylen Waddle
Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
The sophomore slump is not a worry for Jaylen Waddle, who is off to a blazing start with 240 yards and three touchdowns in two games.
He’s been targeted as much as Tyreek Hill and has cleared this number in both contests, even with a positive game script in a 20-7 win against the Patriots in Week 1.
Why I love this number, though, are the injuries Buffalo has suffered in the secondary.
Tre'Davious White remains out and both cornerback Dane Jackson (neck) and safety Micah Hyde (neck; out for the season) join him. Tack on Jordan Poyer’s (foot) questionable designation, and the Bills are looking extremely vulnerable.
Waddle’s speed makes him a consistent big-play threat. He has 117 yards after the catch — nearly half of his total — and should continue to play a prominent role in Miami’s offense. This number is far too low.
Gabriel Davis
Over 54.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s take a break from the Dolphins love and talk about Gabriel Davis.
Back from an ankle injury that sidelined him for Week 2, books are too low on the third-year WR. Davis returning to the field means he’s 100 percent healthy. The Bills wouldn’t force him to play given the talent on their roster and the feasibility of a Super Bowl run.
In the season opener, Davis totaled 88 yards on four receptions with a touchdown. Without Emmanuel Sanders, Davis should see a big bump in workload and continue to shine in one of the NFL’s most elite and efficient offenses.
There is a huge mismatch between the Bills receivers and Dolphins secondary, and I believe both Stefon Diggs and Davis are in for big games.
Miami has the second-worst defense in coverage efficiency, per PFF, and with the public all over Diggs after his three-touchdown performance, I’m targeting Davis at an undervalued price.
Dawson Knox
Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
After signing an extension, Dawson Knox has been quiet to begin 2022. He has just five receptions for 46 yards in two games and has yet to accumulate a red zone target.
I believe Sunday is a perfect spot for the tight end to excel. For starters, he’s been playing the most snaps of any Bill not named Josh Allen. He’s the third-most targeted receiver after Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, and draws a favorable matchup against Miami.
The Dolphins have struggled against tight ends to begin the year. They are the second-worst defense against the position in terms of yards allowed.
Mark Andrews recently burned them for 104 yards and a touchdown. Even backup rookie Isaiah Likely added four receptions for 43 yards. And in the season opener against New England, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry combined for 53 yards.
At 32.5 yards, I think Knox is undervalued here. In what sets up to be a high-scoring game, Knox should receive five-plus targets.
Similar logic with my play on Chase Edmonds, I think Miami's defense will focus so heavily on dropping back and limiting Diggs — and even Davis to a degree — that Knox could feast underneath.
I debated taking a touchdown prop here for Knox, who had nine last season. But he hasn’t been looked at as often in the red zone, and I feel safer targeting his yardage prop instead.
Tua Tagovailoa
Over 260.5 Receiving Yards
OK, back on the Dolphins train!
Following my trend of overs, we’re backing Tua Tagovailoa fresh off his six-touchdown, 469-yard performance against the Ravens.
Not only should this be a negative game script — the spread sits between five and six points — but the aforementioned injuries to Buffalo's secondary should allow for plenty of big plays.
Another key injury is defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle), who will also miss Sunday’s game. That should give Tagovailoa extra time in the pocket and allow him to progress through reads and break down the defense.
We also saw last week just how explosive this offense can be with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the outside. With just one deep throw, we could see Tagovailoa account for nearly 25 percent of this number.
Buffalo/Miami
Over 52.5 Points
You had to see this coming.
Every sign points to a shootout. The Bills' secondary is banged up and draws two of the top receivers — and deep threats — in football. With Ed Oliver also out, the Dolphins should easily put up four-plus scores.
Tack on the fact that Josh Allen and the Bills offense should also feast against Miami’s weak secondary, and this has all the makings of a back-and-forth, high-scoring bout. Getting Gabriel Davis back is huge for this offense, too, and gives Allen another threat.
These aren’t two teams that will run the ball and chew clock. They move fast and pass often.
The Bills move up and down the field the best of any team in the NFL and that’ll in turn force Miami to do the same. And they can easily, with the likes of the explosive duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
There’s just too many injuries to back an under in this situation.
Both teams should finish their drives with ease and this matchup also features two aggressive head coaches. So even on close fourth-down calls, I can see them opting to keep the offense on the field.
You’re going to want to watch this game if you love points. Staying true to my narrative of a high-scoring bout with yet another over, this time on the total.
That brings us to a six-leg parlay. It’s longer than my normal same game parlays, but this one doesn’t feature a touchdown scorer.
With too many options and mouths to feed, I feel safer backing a high-scoring game and trusting the offenses to spread the wealth.
The Parlay (+2213)
- Chase Edmonds o18.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Jaylen Waddle o64.5 Receiving Yards (-122)
- Gabe Davis o54.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Dawson Knox o32.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Tua Tagovailoa o260.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Over 52.5 (-115)
