Jets vs Bills Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -108 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +420 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -112 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -560 |
We're officially back to reality. The Jets have come down to earth, losing their 13th straight game to the Patriots at home in what could be viewed as a season changing game.
The most disappointing part about last games' performance is that the Jets do have a great team, but they also have one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
Between Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson, New York is primed for the future, but it needs to explore other options at quarterback unless we see some insane improvement from Zach Wilson.
While the Jets are missing Alijah Vera-Tucker and Breece Hall on offense, they will never be graded as a good team until the man behind center is figured out.
The worst part about this performance is that the Jets have officially embarked on the toughest part of their schedule. They needed to win one or two of this three-game stretch, but they're likely to go 0-3 and their playoff chances could dwindle quickly.
Now, the Jets face the unequivocal best team in the league. Eagles fans, pipe down. You have a great team, but Philadelphia would be home underdogs against the Bills.
Josh Allen is going to win MVP, and they will be favored in every single game this season, so it is truly Super Bowl or bust for this squad. It's remarkable what the Bills have accomplished offensively, and their defense is sneakily top five in the league.
So, not much to look forward to if you're a Jets fan, but it's definitely going to be fun for Bills fans. I can't imagine the tailgate scene. Actually, I can. Anyway, let's get into the analysis.
Jets vs Bills Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Jets and Bills match up statistically:
Jets vs Bills DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 4 | 8 | |
| Pass DVOA | 2 | 8 | |
| Rush DVOA | 25 | 8 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 21 | 4 | |
| Pass DVOA | 21 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 17 | 5 | |
I'm supposed to break down strengths and weaknesses of both teams, and one of these teams has very few of the latter.
The Bills are by far and away the best team in the league, the team of destiny. If that coin flip in the AFC playoffs went their way last year, they would have been in the AFC Championship Game and probably would have handled the Bengals.
Now, it feels like Buffalo's offense can score every single time, and its defense has shown insane upside. The only part of the Bills' game dragging them down is the run offense. Whenever they need to score, though, they'll just have Josh Allen sling it. Buffalo ranks fourth in both offensive and defensive DVOA, but their overall rating is number one in the Football Outsiders' metric. It's so fun watching them play. I just hope the Super Bowl is close.
Bills -10.5 | Jets +10.5
The Jets also have a great defense. It's the only hope for their chances in this game, as Williams has grown into one of, if not the, best defensive linemen in the league, and Gardner has immediately made an impact. He is debatably one of the best corners in the league already, and again, could be the best. D.J. Reed on the other side of the field is sneakily one of the top corners as well, putting Saleh's squad at number eight in defensive DVOA.
This unit is one of the more impressive turnarounds in the NFL this season, as the Jets had the 32nd ranked defensive squad according to the same metric last year. That improvement probably secured Saleh another couple years heading up the team.
The offense, on the other hand, is officially a mess. Wilson looked so lost last week, immediately spinning and rolling out almost every passing down, and then just throwing it up to whoever was there. If it wasn't for those picks and a questionable roughing call, the Jets really should have beaten the Patriots. It was one of the most important games of the season, and he did not rise to the occasion.
Sure, Vera-Tucker and Hall are big pieces that are missing, but the plays are there and Wilson can't put it together. It's not a question of "if" anymore. He has to go and there needs to be a serious exploration of quarterback options in the offseason. Every Jets fan is praying for Lamar Jackson, but there's nothing besides his contract situation for that to have any serious traction.
To sum it all up, this could be a bloodbath.
Betting Picks
There are a ton of similar opponents here, and looking at the line tells an interesting story.
Let's look at the Packers to start. Green Bay was favored by 7 or 7.5 against the Jets at home, and while they have greatly disappointed and underachieved this year, they flipped to 10.5-point 'dogs in Buffalo last week.
So, we're making the Jets 7-point dogs to the Packers, the Packers 10.5-point dogs to the Bills, and then only make the Bills a 11.5-point favorite? This should be at least 14, and I'm actually surprised this has moved from 12.5 to 11.5.
I've written about the Jets a ton here, and I've been against them in particular situations. I took them against the Steelers and the Browns, but the one thing those teams have in common is that they are, well, not good. The situation for betting against them, however, is when they play a good team at home. Those teams were the Ravens and Bengals, and this squad is vastly better than both of them.
As I said above, this should be a 14-point game. There won't be much of a home-field advantage with Buffalo fans running rampant in New Jersey, and there won't be much scoring on the Jets side of the ball. While the Jets have a phenomenal defense, the Bills can torch anyone at any time.
