NFL Week 6 closes with our Bills vs. Jets predictions in an AFC East matchup between playoff hopefuls.
The Buffalo Bills (3-2) have lost two straight games, while Josh Allen has struggled in those games against the Ravens and Texans. The Jets (2-3) just fired Robert Saleh and have changed play-callers in hopes of getting the best out of Aaron Rodgers.
As of early Monday afternoon, the Bills were getting 88% of bets and 82% of the money, and 71% of bets and 56% of money were on the over. We have one expert backing the public and another fading it.
Check out our Bills vs. Jets bets and NFL predictions for Monday Night Football.
Bills vs. Jets Picks, Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Bills vs. Jets Pick Against the Spread
By Billy Ward
The Jets have two straight games, scoring a combined 26 points against the Vikings and Broncos. Ownership's reaction to that was to fire defensively-minded head coach Robert Saleh while keeping Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, although he won't be calling plays this week. The Jets defense certainly isn't why Saleh was fired since it's tied for fifth in points allowed per game at 17 while still sporting a losing record.
The point is that this is a dysfunctional organization catering to the whims of a 40-year-old quarterback who ranks 22nd in quarterback rating on the season. They’re taking on the 3-2 Bills, whose quarterback leads the league in QBR while ranking third in points per game.
Sometimes, betting on the NFL is hard, but this isn’t one of those times. I’ll lay the point to get the better quarterback and a more stable team any day of the week. I'd play Buffalo up to -3.
Pick: Bills -1 (-110)
John LanFranca's Bills-Jets Over/Under Bet
The Jets are the best defense in the NFL on a yards-per-play basis. More importantly, they're fourth in pressure rate. Josh Allen is last in the NFL out of all qualifying passers in completion percentage when he has been pressured to complete fewer than 40% of his throws.
Both teams are going to rely on their running games in a game they need to protect their passers and negate the potential windy conditions. New York has not run the ball well, but it also has had to take on a difficult slate of fronts in recent weeks.
The Jets should make it a point to feature Breece Hall and should have enough success that they can produce long, methodical drives that keep the clock running. Buffalo will likely follow suit in trying to attack the 24th-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, instead of the seventh-best pass defense.
Over the last three seasons, divisional night games are 26-16 (61.9%) to the under. In all Jets home games over the last three years, the under is 13-6 (68.4%), which has included cashing in five of seven games against AFC East opponents.
This game is teed up perfectly to finish 20-17, no matter who comes out on top.
Pick: Under 41 (-110)
Josh Allen Player Prop
These teams have split their two games the past two years. The Jets have won both of their home pages thanks to Josh Allen nightmare games. He took five sacks in each game and threw a combined five interceptions.
Allen has thrown six interceptions in his last four games against the Jets and at least one in three straight games at New York. There will be double-digit-mph winds, and it sure looked like Allen finished last week 's loss to the Texans groggy after a concussion check.
Allen hasn't thrown an interception this season, but his 5.5% turnover-worthy play rate ranks 29th, which is the worst since his rookie season.
At -120, we're getting a discount on this bet. He was routinely around -150 to throw an interception last season and was still cashing.
In four of his 10 starts against the Jets, Allen has thrown multiple interceptions. He has also thrown two or more INTs in 12 of his last 50 games (24%). Have a little fun and go for two or more interceptions (+375 at bet365) and sprinkle something on three at +1300.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 0.5 INTs (-120) | 2+ INTs (+375)
