The Buffalo Bills (3-2) travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets (2-3) in a pivotal AFC East clash on Monday Night Football to close NFL Week 6. Fortunately, there are some interesting player prop angles for us to dive into.
Let's take a look at my Bills vs. Jets props and my NFL picks for Monday Night Football.
Sam Farley's Bills vs. Jets Player Props
- Breece Hall Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-120, BetMGM)
- Breece Hall Over 3.5 Receptions (-130, FanDuel)
- Keon Coleman Anytime Touchdown (+275, bet365)
Breece Hall Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
The Jets’ offense has been a hot mess so far this season, but with Nathaniel Hackett removed from play calling duties we’re likely to see an improvement, although just how much remains to be seen. One thing the Jets are surely going to try to do is increase the amount of touches for Breece Hall.
We’ve seen the Jets' backfield shared far more than expected with Braelon Allen, but while the rookie has impressed, it’s notable that the Jets’ two wins have been games in which Hall has had at least 14 carries.
Hall has had just 19 carries across the past two weeks and has struggled, along with the rest of the team. He’s one of the better running backs in the NFL and they’ll increase his usage here and give him more carries. The Bills have been giving up 171 rushing yards per game to RBs and we’ve already seen Hall rush for at 54+ yards in every game he’s received a significant number of carries (14+).
Breece Hall Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Much like the above prop, the team really needs to find ways to get the ball into Breece Hall’s hands. He’s an exciting playmaker and by getting him the ball in the open field he can use his elusiveness to evade Bills’ defenders and get the Jets up field. Last week was his lowest game of the season in terms of targets, with just four, having had at least five every week before that.
There are only three games in which Hall has had four or more catches and coincidentally both of the team’s wins happened in those games. He averaged seven yards per catch, which shows how dynamic he can be. The Jets simply have to get him the ball.
Keon Coleman Anytime Touchdown (+275)
It always feels a risk taking any wideout to score against this Jets’ secondary who rank amongst the very best in the NFL but Keon Coleman could be the play this week. He only had one catch last week against the Texans but he was targeted five times, tied for a season-high, following four targets the week before. The team is clearly looking to get him more involved with nine targets in the past two weeks compared to just two in the two weeks prior to that.
He's a big body guy, standing 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, but the most interesting thing is that amongst all Bills’ wide receivers, exactly half of all his targets have come inside the 20. He has two catches on four targets, while Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel have just four targets combined. His four targets is still higher than Dalton Kincaid, with the Bills’ TE having just three.
The team is looking for Coleman in the red zone, and at +275, you’re getting a big price on him scoring.
