My strategy for my Bills vs. Jets same-game parlay on Monday Night Football is to create a correlated bet that pinpoints the way I see the game playing out.
There are four legs in total, and I break down each one below. Same-game parlays don't present the best value in betting, so check out our other coverage of tonight's game here.
Josh Allen
Under 274.5 Passing Yards
Throughout the 2022 football season, Josh Allen's average passing yards per game measured at 267.7. However, when facing off against the Jets, he struggled to achieve his usual numbers, with only 205 and 147 yards the teams' two matchups last season.
It's worth noting that the Jets boast the highest-ranked secondary defense, as rated by Pro Football Focus. They ranked fourth in Pass DVOA and third in Opponent Passing Yards, allowing a stingy average of only 189.4 yards per game.
Additionally, cornerback Sauce Gardner was awarded the Defensive Rookie of the Year title in the same year. At the same time, D.J. Reed, Michael Carter and Jordan Whitehead each earned a PFF coverage grade of 70.6 or higher.
Josh Allen
Over 29.5 Rushing Yards
If Allen's vertical receivers fail to deliver, he may have to rely on his running ability to start the season.
In those past two games against the Jets, Allen had impressive rushing yards of 47 and 86. However, given the strength of the Jets' defense and their great pressure, Allen will likely need to scramble often. The Jets' pass rush was ranked seventh in sack rate last season, indicating a formidable amount of pressure for Allen to face.
James Cook
2+ Receptions
James Cook is a highly-regarded breakout candidate in fantasy football leagues. With passing-catching RB Nyehim Hines sidelined for the season, Cook is expected to take on a greater role this year, utilizing more for short passes. It's likely that Allen will find himself in check-down scenarios, and I believe he'll throw quick passes to Cook.
It's worth noting that from Week 13 onwards, Cook has been playing more pass snaps as a receiver, with his average increasing from 5.2 in Weeks 1-12 to 14.5 in the final five weeks of the season.
Dalton Kincaid
15+ Receiving Yards
The Bills drafted Kincaid in the first round, indicating they have big plans for him in the offense.
As a versatile wide receiver/ tight end hybrid, Kincaid possesses exceptional catching ability, making him an ideal target for Josh Allen's choice of attack. While his role in Week 1 is relatively unknown, the Bills want to utilize Kincaid's talents and fully leverage him.
In 2022, Jets opponents were:
15% more likely to target RB
18% more likely to target TE
14% more likely to target the slotWR vs NYJ accounted for only 51% of team TGT – lowest in the NFL.
QBs did not wanna test these corners.
This is a James Cook (and Dalton Kincaid?) tweet.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 7, 2023
Kincaid's poses a mismatch nightmare for defenses. Last season, opposing TEs had the highest completion percentage against the Jets, while WRs were targeted at the lowest rate in the NFL.
Pick: Bills Same Game Parlay (+360, DraftKings)
- Josh Allen under 274.5 Passing Yards (-190)
- Josh Allen over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-220)
- James Cook 2+ Receptions (-275)
- Dalton Kincaid over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-330)
