Bills vs. Patriots Odds
The 3-seeded Bills are set to take on the 6-seeded Patriots on Wild Card Weekend of the 2022 NFL Playoffs. Find our expert's projected odds and a recap of each team's seasons below.
Bills vs. Patriots Schedule
Bills vs. Patriots Projections
Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals his initial projections for the spread and over/under based on his model.
These are subject to change before kickoff, though, so be sure to check out our NFL PRO Projections — i.e. real-time consensus projections based on models of six experts (including Sean).
- Spread: Bills -5.5
- Total: 44.5*
*This projection is dependent on the weather in Buffalo
Bills vs. Patriots Predictions
Find our expert's pick for Bills-Patriots in the story below.
How Bills Reached 2022 NFL Playoffs
Avery Yang: This team might have some of the most confusing results out of any squad in the NFL, with losses to the Jaguars and Steelers to go along with a 41-15 drubbing by the Colts.
They are talked about like one of the best teams in the NFL, but have they really looked like one this season?
The advanced statistics have an answer, and it's a resounding yes.
Football Outsiders’ overall DVOA says the Bills are the No. 3 team in the NFL. And while they've had some losses to bad teams, they’ve dominated decent and good teams, including the Patriots and Chiefs.
Dominating teams — not winning close games — is the best metric in deciding which teams are Super Bowl contenders and not Super Bowl pretenders.
All of the Bills’ wins this season have come by double digits. And in each of those wins, the Bills had complete or near-complete control of the game by the time the fourth quarter rolled around.
The market loves Buffalo, and I don’t blame them. Don’t be surprised if you see the Bills in Inglewood come mid-February.
How Patriots Reached 2022 NFL Playoffs
Chase Howell: Are the Patriots officially back? For a couple of weeks in the middle of the season, it certainly felt like it.
They were sitting atop the AFC East and were in good position to secure the 1-seed after their Week 14 win over the Bills. They lost their next two games after that, allowing Buffalo to surpass them and settling for an AFC wild-card spot.
That doesn’t discount what they have done this season though, or the fact that the defense is certainly good enough to carry this team in the playoffs. They rank second in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ total DVOA on defense and have relied on that unit throughout the season.
The offense leaves something to be desired but they still rank 10th in total DVOA on offense. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been a reliable game manager, but he is far from a finished product and he doesn’t have great weapons at receiver at the moment. The Pats have relied on their running back by committee approach and have developed a solid run game, ranking eighth in the NFL in rush yards per game.
