In a surprising turn of events, the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are both playing on Thursday Night Football for the second time in as many weeks.
The Bills are in an interesting spot, having played back-to-back games in Detroit before flying to Massachusetts for this game.
However, the Patriots are also in an intriguing spot, playing their second of five straight primetime matchups.
Given all that weirdness, I have zero interest in picking a side. However, I do have two player props I project value on.
My favorite way to pick NFL player props is using PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different props and wager real money on them in 30 states, including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
That said, here’s my PrizePicks card for Thursday Night Football.
Devin Singletary
Over/Under 11.5 Receiving Yards
The Patriots boast one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. New England is 10th in passing yards per game allowed (198.5) and second in completion percentage allowed.
But while the Patriots have a relatively good secondary (10th in PFF’s Coverage grades), the pass-defense success is fueled by the pass rush.
The Patriots are second in pressure rate (28.2%) and sacks (45), and rank first in hurry rate (13.6%). Matthew Judon leads the league in sacks (13), and the Patriots have forced opposing quarterbacks into mistakes all season.
Josh Allen is not a guy who will make mistakes and he has the legs to work around the pocket and avoid pressure. However, his offensive line isn’t perfect (20th in adjusted line yards, 21st in PFF’s Pass Block grades), and I feel the Patriots' pressure should get home.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Allen (wisely) check down to his back often. And Devin Singletary is not afraid of that role.
Singletary has recorded four or more receptions in four games this season and he’s recorded at least one in every game he’s played. He has also reached double-digit receiving yards in seven of 11 games.
A similar situation has played out against New England in the past. Singletary has cashed this receiving yards number in two of his three games against the Patriots, picking up 10 targets and eight receptions in the process.
The Action Network’s Player Props Tool projects Singletary for 16 receiving yards on Thursday night with a mean of 18. Meanwhile, Stokastic’s NFL Player Props Tool projects Singletary for a whopping 19 receiving yards.
Either way, the matchup looks good, and there’s plenty of value in this PrizePicks number.
Pick: Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Jakobi Meyers
Over/Under 4 Receptions
It’s important to qualify this pick because Jakobi Meyers was injured early against Minnesota and didn't return.
But if he’s healthy, this matchup looks juicy.
Meyers played just 16 snaps last week, running 15 routes, but recorded three receptions on four targets.
Meyers has surprisingly developed into a top-tier possession receiver as long as he’s healthy. New England has started three quarterbacks this season, and all three have consistently looked Meyers’ way.
Surprisingly, Buffalo’s secondary has looked poor recently. The Bills are 29th in Dropback EPA per play allowed over the past three weeks, allowing Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brissett and Jared Goff to light them up.
Moreover, the Bills allowed eight of 10 wide receivers to go over their receptions line during that period.
Bills games are also high-volume because Buffalo is third in seconds per play and fifth in situation-neutral seconds per play. As a result, the Bills allow the sixth-most pass attempts per game (35.4).
There is no better situation for a possession receiver, such as Meyers, to thrive. Meyers has already proved this, as he picked up six receptions in both games against Buffalo last season.
The Action Network’s Player Props Tool projects Meyers for 4.8 receptions on Thursday. Meanwhile, Stokastic’s NFL Player Props Tool projects Meyers for 5.1 receptions.
However, I wouldn’t be surprised if he cashes this PrizePicks line in the first half.
Pick: Over 4.0 Receptions
