Temperatures are expected to be frigid in Buffalo on Saturday night, possibly hovering below 10 degrees at kickoff. It's the perfect atmosphere for the third battle of the season between two huge AFC East rivals, the Patriots and the Bills.
For the second consecutive year, we are treated to six playoff games for the upcoming Wild Card Round. Only the No. 1 seeds in each conference (Tennessee and Green Bay) earned a bye to next week's Divisional Round.
With six games on the Saturday-Monday slate, there are a plethora of betting opportunities. In addition the traditional sides and totals, we have some tremendous value with player props for each team.
Let's take a look at my favorite NFL player props for the second game of the weekend: Patriots at Bills.
Find a complete breakdown of the game here.
What are player props? They're bets on a player's statistical outcome. Learn more here.
NFL Props: Bills-Patriots
Damien Harris Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
We project Damien Harris for 59 rushing yards on our FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool. It his two games against Buffalo this season, Harris has averaged 14 carries and 107 rushing yards in those two games. He is also averaging 61.9 yards per game this season.
New England ran for 222 yards on 4.8 yards per carry in their Week 13 win over the Bills in Buffalo. While the Bills certainly recognize the importance of limiting the Patriots on the ground, this number remains too low for the Damien Harris, New England's leading rusher. The Bills rank first overall in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA, but only 11th in rush defense efficiency.
In a cold weather playoff game, I’ll still take Harris to beat this rushing yardage total.
Devin Singletary Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (PointsBet)
Devin Singletary has ascended to the lead running back in Buffalo, with three-down usage. He has seen a 78% or higher snap share in four of the last five games, including an 80.8% snap share at home in Week 17 against Atlanta. He has six games of three or more receptions, including three games of five-plus catches.
New England has allowed the eighth-most receptions to opposing running backs this season, and I expect the Bills to attack the Patriots with a few different offensive wrinkles. With 10 or more receiving yards in four of Buffalo’s past five games, it’s not a stretch to see the versatile running back as a larger part of the passing game in Buffalo’s third matchup with the Patriots.
Brandon Bolden Under 20.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)
Despite the unpredictability of New England's running back usage, this Brandon Bolden rushing prop is too high. He has four rushing yards or fewer in five of the past seven games. This number is skewed by Bolden’s seven-carry, 46 yard performance in the regular-season finale against Miami.
In a playoff game against a division opponent, I expect Bolden to be active in the New England passing attack. However, the majority of rushing attempts will likely center around Damien Harris and rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. I’ll take a chance on an under that Bolden failed to even approach in 10 of New England’s 16 games.
