The Buffalo Bills gear up for an AFC East bout with the New England Patriots on Thursday night.
Both teams squared off on Thanksgiving, with the Bills winning on a last-second field goal to defeat the Detroit Lions. The Patriots, meanwhile, were outscored 17-3 by the Minnesota Vikings down the stretch in a 33-26 loss.
Can the Pats bounce back in Foxborough, or will the Bills take a half-game lead in one of the tightest division races in football this season?
Here’s a same-game parlay for this divisional matchup.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
Damien Harris is inactive, which means Rhamondre Stevenson will take the lion’s share of the ground work.
The Bills’ major flaw on defense is containing the rush. They’re 24th in efficiency, per PFF, which doesn’t bode well against a power back like Stevenson who averages 4.5 yards per carry.
After Harris’s injury against Detroit, Stevenson showed his true colors. He finished the game with 161 yards on 25 carries and followed it up with a 76-yard, two-touchdown performance the following week against Cleveland.
While he’s been extremely active in the passing game, in what should be a close game, the Patriots should lean on their run game. The Bills thrive in Pass Rush — third, per PFF — and should be disruptive tonight against a banged up Patriots offensive line.
Bet Thursday Night Football at FanDuel
Stevenson has been on the field for 75+ percent of snaps in six of his last seven games and should see another high-usage performance on Thursday night. In games where he’s gotten 16+ carries, he’s 3/3 to this over.
In the previous five weeks, the Bills have given up 122.2 rushing yards per game and just over five yards per carry. Action Labs projects this number closer to 68, leaving plenty of value here for Stevenson.
Isaiah McKenzie
Under 29.5 Receiving Yards
This is the perfect time to fade Isaiah McKenzie, fresh off a six-catch, 96-yard Thanksgiving game against the Lions.
McKenzie is a utility receiver who is more often than not used in red zone work. This number is a bit inflated given his recent success, and he’s only gone over this number in 40% of his games this season.
In the five games prior to his breakout performance in Detroit, McKenzie had nine total receptions for 66 yards.
Our very own Nick Giffen hopped on ‘Green Doty Daily!’ to break down his reasoning behind McKenzie finishing under this number, and I agree. New England is his toughest task yet — third in Pass DVOA — and his swiss-army-knife usage could lead to a couple runs rather than extra targets.
I’m joining my colleague and adding McKenzie’s under to the same-game parlay where I think we see a slower-paced, more run-heavy approach from Buffalo.
James Cook
15+ Rushing Yards
I’m going to buy the dip on James Cook here. The Bills have been more run-heavy with Josh Allen’s elbow injury, and I expect a bounce back performance out of the rookie running back against New England.
Last week we saw just 14 snaps from Cook, but he was involved in 50 percent of those plays. While he only finished with four rushing yards, it shows that when Cook does line up behind Allen, the Bills try to involve the explosive back.
In four of the last five games, Cook has eclipsed this number. Since the bye week, Cook has often been used in 20+ percent of snaps, and he often sees about five carries per game.
Cook averages 5.6 yards per carry and has broken 15+ yard runs in four games this season. Our projections have him at 19 yards, providing value on Cook’s over tonight.
The Parlay (+500)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
- Isaiah McKnezie Under 29.5 Receiving Yards
- James Cook 15+ Rushing Yards
