Patriots vs. Bills: Round 3. The first two showings of these two teams both came down to which quarterback made fewer mistakes.
In the first matchup, the weather impacted Josh Allen’s performance, and in the second, Mac Jones just looked like a rookie. We'll once again have bad weather, though not nearly as bad as that first matchup. Let’s see if we can build a parlay to take advantage.
A full breakdown of this game can be found here.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting same-game parlays here.
Bills-Patriots Same-Game Parlay
Props 1 & 2: Patriots Alternate Point Spread +7.5 (-180) & Alternate Total Points Under 47.5 (-170)
These come from the same thought, so we are grouping them together. I actually have no problem betting the Patriots down to +3, but prefer to buy some cushion.
This game is in Buffalo, and although precipitation may be minimal, it will be cold and windy. This will push the Patriots to their run game and limit the big-play potential of the Buffalo offense.
The Patriots defense has no problem stopping anyone as long as their offense keeps them out of bad spots. The weather should help them keep the ball on the ground and prevent Mac Jones from making those costly mistakes.
As for the Bills, Josh Allen carries this offense. However, his playmaking can become erratic at times and lead to big plays for the defense. The wind will limit his ability to throw deep and force him to have long sustained drives. That style will burn the clock and limit Buffalo from pulling away by too much.
Between the playoffs typically having closer games and the weather in Buffalo, the combination of a one-score game and the under is too good to pass up.
Prop 3: Devin Singletary Under 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Devin Singletary has come alive in recent weeks, but this has happened exclusively in multi-score wins for the Bills. In the two games against New England, Singletary has averaged 37.5 yards per game. Buffalo typically looks to see if its run game is working early, but if not, the Bills are happy to put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands.
This will be a close game, but I expect Bill Belichick to once again force Allen to beat the weather and his defense. This means fewer opportunities for Singletary on the ground.
Prop 4: Tyler Bass Total Kicking Points Over 6.5 (-135)
Since I believe the Bills will win this one, my typical move here would be to select a prop that projects where their points are coming from. However, we have already ruled out the ground game and said the passing game will be limited. This leaves the kicker as the only source remaining.
The Bills defense will do what it can to limit New England's run game and force Mac Jones to beat them. In good weather, Jones had a quarterback rating of 31.4 against the Bills defense, so Buffalo will have no fear of the New England offense. That extra trust in his defense will give Sean McDermott peace of mind when he settles for field goals instead of pushing the envelope.
