If this doesn't bring a tear to your eye, then you're one cold-hearted human. The 2022 NFL season is back and there's no better way to begin than a battle between the Super Bowl-favorite Bills and defending-champion Rams.
And in true degenerate fashion, there's nothing better than starting the season with a same-game parlay!
My approach to same-game parlays are simple: I follow a narrative of how I expect the game script to play out. Most of my plays are correlated and should all have a good shot at winning if said narrative comes to fruition.
In this game, I lean toward the Rams defending their home field and Super Bowl crown against Josh Allen and the Bills. This could quickly become a shootout, but I don't foresee a blowout from either side to begin the year.
Here is how I'm looking to bet Thursday Night Football, starting with a breakout candidate for his new team:
Allen Robinson
Over 70 Receiving Yards (+112) and ATD (+160)
If there's a weakness on this Bills team, it's at the cornerback position. Star Tre'Davious White remains on the PUP list to begin the year, leaving behind a thin depth chart.
While Sean McDermott hasn't named his starter opposite Dane Jackson, expect a combination of snaps from rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford.
Regardless of who takes the majority of snaps, Allen Robinson has the biggest mismatch on Thursday night. All attention will be shifted toward Cooper Kupp — you can't leave the star on an island — often leaving the veteran 1-on-1 with the aforementioned rookie cornerbacks.
Van Jefferson is also out for the season opener, which should translate to added targets for Robinson.
We saw Robert Woods thrive as the No. 2 behind Kupp last season, scoring touchdowns in four of nine games before suffering a season-ending injury. He was WR13 in fantasy at the time of the injury. Enter Odell Beckham Jr. as a replacement, and he finished with seven touchdowns in 12 games.
All this to say that Robinson is undervalued here and worth a bet on both his touchdown and receiving yards prop. Yes, he didn't have a great final season in Chicago, but he's just 29 years old and joining a high-powered offense that should feed him the ball nonstop to begin the year.
Buy your early-season A-Rob stock before it's too late.
Gabriel Davis
Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Ah, 2022. Better known as the year of Gabriel Davis.
If there's one player primed for a breakout season, it's Davis. Last year, the 23-year-old showed flashes of dominance, highlighted by his 201-yard, four-touchdown performance against Kansas City in the AFC Divisional Round.
That followed a trend of Davis slowly climbing up the depth chart, biding his time as the No. 3 receiver behind Emmanuel Sanders. But in the final six games of 2021 (playoffs included), Davis was targeted 45 times, and one of those games was a 47-17 blowout of New England in horrible weather.
I'm not sure why Davis is not being shown more love entering the year. If there's one offense that can support two top-10 receivers, it's the pass-heavy Bills led by Josh Allen.
This number remains too low for Davis, who should receive plenty of targets, especially considering the dog fight between Jalen Ramsey and Stefon Diggs about to take place.
Rams
Alt Spread +4.5 (-170)
While I do lean the Rams outright in this season opener, I feel safer adding some cushion to the current spread of +2.5, buying L.A. up to +4.5. As seen in our betting trends and notes for Week 1, reigning Super Bowl champions are 14-7-1 ATS since 2000.
Even with the Bills taking the majority of the money and bets, I think this is the perfect spot to fade the public and back the Rams, who are 5-0 straight-up in season openers under head coach Sean McVay.
It also shouldn't go unsaid that former Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is now with the Giants. That means play-calling duties fall on rookie OC Ken Dorsey.
The Rams' defensive line should give Buffalo fits all night, especially on the inside. If there's any weakness on this Bills offense, it's the guard positions.
This has all the makings of a down-to-the-wire game where I give the edge to Los Angeles defending its Super Bowl crown in Week 1. Even if the Bills were to win, I am confident it won't be in blowout fashion.
Devin Singletary
Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Devin Singletary is a running back that I want no part of this season.
Despite finishing last season strong, with 80-plus rushing yards in four of his last six games, the Bills still went out and drafted James Cook in the second round. Cook now joins Singletary and Zack Moss in a crowded backfield, and that doesn't even account for Josh Allen's propensity to run the football and be a bruiser.
The Rams also return a majority of their defense from last season, which ranked sixth in defending the run. While Von Miller is now in Buffalo, Los Angeles brought in Bobby Wagner to shore up its linebacking corps. This should be another top-tier front seven in 2022.
There's just too many mouths to feed in what can quickly turn into a pass-heavy game from the Bills. I also mentioned earlier that the Rams’ defense could quickly cause problems for Buffalo's offensive line; that would force the ball into Allen's hands more often than not. I expect Singletary to still hold the lion's share of the rushes, but I can't see him eclipsing 12 carries — thus making his number of 43.5 too high.
The Parlay (+1560, FanDuel)
- Allen Robinson Anytime TD scorer (+160)
- Allen Robinson Over 70 Receiving Yards (+112)
- Gabriel Davis Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Rams +4.5 (-170)
- Devin Singletary Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
(Click the links above to automatically add those bets to your FanDuel bet slip with QuickSlip – with more markets available via QuickSlip soon!)
