Thursday Night Football is back, and so are primetime plays on PrizePicks, which allows you to bet on and pair up player props for single games — or an entire slate — in 27 states.
The public loves betting overs. You know the public is ready to slam the over in the NFL’s season-opening game between the Bills and the Rams. At the time of writing, The Action Network app has tracked almost 75% of the tickets coming in on the over.
However, I’m always looking to fade the public and I’m generally looking to bet the under in primetime matchups. So, regarding my favorite PrizePicks plays, I’m looking at two unders.
Tyler Higbee
Under 4 Receptions
Tyler Higbee is a reliable tight end. He’s started at least 15 games in five straight seasons and recorded a 70% or higher catch rate in four straight. He picked up five touchdown catches in both 2020 and 2021.
There is nothing wrong with Higbee as a tight end – but I’m ready to fade him here.
For starters, Higbee recorded 4.1 receptions per game last season and 4.6 in 2019. He finished at 2.9 in 2020 and fewer than two in his first three seasons with the Rams. There’s a chance his two big seasons over the last two years were an anomaly, as opposed to the other way around.
But from a game-to-game perspective, Higbee only managed to make at least four receptions in 10 of 17 games last season. He failed to hit that mark in two of his three playoff games.
The Bills were just league average in DVOA against tight ends in 2021 — but they managed to avoid targets. Buffalo’s 5.5 pass attempts per game allowed to tight ends ranked second in the NFL.
The Matt Milano effect is real. Tremaine Edmunds struggled in coverage last year, but Milano finished in the top 10 among linebackers in Coverage Success Rate (68%) and yards allowed per target (3.7). Higbee will have a tough time if he draws Milano.
Higbee managed just two receptions on two targets when the Rams took on the Bills in 2020.
Our internal Action Network projections mark Higbee for just 3.6 catches on Thursday Night, while Stokastic’s Player Props Tool marks him for 3.58. He could finish even lower in my opinion.
Pick: Under 4 Receptions
Allen Robinson
Under 5 Receptions
It’s tough to project what Allen Robinson will do this season. There’s a legit chance he’s a star with Matthew Stafford. And with Van Jefferson inactive for this game, the sky's the limit.
However, when there’s uncertainty about a player in the prop market, I almost always take the under. Robinson got hurt midway through 2021 and missed most of the second half. However, he wasn’t elite in the games he did play.
Robinson managed to snag at least five receptions in just one of the 11 games he started last season, and that was in Week 1 against the Rams. He only managed at least six targets in six of those 11 games.
Cooper Kupp is the clear No. 1 option for the Rams, and that may open opportunities for Robinson in man coverage. But the Bills were the best team in the league last season against No. 2 wide receivers, posting a -47.1% DVOA while allowing just 6.1 targets and 32.5 yards per game.
There are questions in Buffalo’s secondary with injuries, but I’ll happily fade Robinson in his Rams debut.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Robinson for just 4.5 receptions, while Stokastic’s player props tool is around 4.8.
Pick: Under 5 Receptions
