Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have a Bills vs. Ravens parlay tonight.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Bills vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football parlay picks on BetMGM.
Bills vs. Ravens Parlay Picks for Sunday Night Football
- Bills Moneyline +120
- Justice Hill Over 2.5 Receptions (+115)
- Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Zay Flowers Anytime TD (+150)
Full Bills vs. Ravens Parlay Odds: +2000 (BetMGM) | $10 Bet Wins $200
Bills Moneyline (+120)
I took the Bills spread in our weekly best bets for this game, with the note that I was expecting the Bills to win outright.
In the spirit of getting to more exciting odds on the parlay, that's how I'm starting this one. The Bills are arguably the NFL's best team through three weeks, with a pair of dominant victories in Weeks 2 and 3 thanks to their league-best scoring offense.
They also have a top-10 scoring defense, which should look even better if they can play from ahead against the run-focused Ravens.
Baltimore is a much better team when protecting a lead on the ground than when forced to air it out, which favors the Bills here.
Plus, it sets up nicely where we can get very good odds on this parlay by taking any Ravens overs.
Justice Hill Over 2.5 Receptions (+115)
In the Ravens' first two games — both losses — Hill had a 54% combined snap share, compared to just 41% last week in the win over the Cowboys. Baltimore clearly sees hill as the passing-down/hurry-up back, with Derrick Henry handling early down and clock-killing situations.
Since we're already taking the Bills to win, it makes sense that Hill gets more run in a scenario where that happens. He has eight catches on 10 targets across their two losses.
We have Hill projected for 2.6 targets in our NFL Props tool, making this a solid bet in its own right. That number would go up if we knew the Bills eventually won the game, which we're banking on anyway.
Josh Allen Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115)
This seems like a low line for Allen, who's cleared it in two out of three games despite the Bills having two blowout victories.
While we're betting on the Bills to win, it should be close enough that Allen is forced to pick up yards through the air throughout most of the contest.
Our projections have Allen for just under 250 passing yards, but that's another line that would shift up if we expect a Bills win. While it doesn't have a huge impact on the odds — bringing the parlay to +600 — it's a fairly safe pick.
That +600 would be a solid parlay on its own, and I'll be splitting my exposure between it and a bigger swing with one more leg.
WR Zay Flowers Anytime TD (+150)
Betting on the Bills to win doesn't mean the Ravens won't score, and if Buffalo controls the game it should shift the Ravens to a more pass-heavy approach.
That shifts some of the touchdown equity away from Derrick Henry, who currently has the best chance to score a touchdown both based on betting odds (-140) and our projections.
After Henry, the best odds are on Flowers, who is the Ravens' clear No. 1 option in the passing game as he saw more than 10 targets in both Baltimore losses.
Adding this one in brings the total parlay odds to +2000 or 20-to-1.
Full Bills vs. Ravens Parlay Odds: +2000 | $10 Bet Wins $200
