Well, last week burned us. We nailed the Chargers and Mike Williams had a good game but we were burned by Najee Harris and both defenses. This week, thought, we turn away from Sunday Night Football in celebration of NFL Thanksgiving.
We will be looking for value in the primetime game on Turkey Day. Nothing would be better than waking up from the post-dinner nap and watching your big same-game parlay hit.
As a reminder, our process is built on creating a script for the matchup. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to use PointsBets' $20 free bet in the most efficient manner.
Bills vs. Saints Odds
Both of these teams had huge letdown games last week. The Bills were blown off their home turf by the Colts and a five-touchdown performance from Jonathan Taylor. The Saints had a similar problem as the Eagles ran rampant over their defense. Now, on a short week and in tight playoff races, both teams need a win.
The problem for the Bills last week was simple. On offense, Buffalo failed to protect the ball and ended with four turnovers. On defense, the Bills had no answer for the Colts run game as they allowed 264 of Indy’s 370 yards to come on the ground.
Living with the turnovers is part of having Josh Allen as your quarterback. Recent weeks have been much worse than normal as they have nine turnovers in their past three games. Runs on the bad side of variance will happen, especially when you play with a play-making quarterback. The Saints have struggled to force turnovers in recent weeks, having one in the past three games. Playing in the Superdome will help protect from any negative weather effects. Add in that the Saints have a bottom-half pass rush, per Pro-Football-Reference, and Buffalo’s offense should bounce back.
As for the Saints offense, under Trevor Simien it has been a tale of two halves each week. In the first half, they have averaged 4.3 points per game, while in the second half that skyrockets to 20.67. This week the offense looks like it will need to try to break that trend without Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk and potentially Mark Ingram II.
Missing their backs and part of their offensive line spells trouble when it comes to exploiting Buffalo’s weak rushing defense. Making matters worse, a weak run game means New Orleans will have to put the ball in Simian’s hands against a lockdown Buffalo pass defense. The Bills defense still ranks first in net yards allowed per attempt and turnovers per game.
This game has the making of one heavily in the Bills' favor — there is a reason this game has moved from a 3.5-point spread at its low to 6.5 currently. We will follow the market sentiment and expect Buffalo to control this game. However, the Saints' ability to turn it on in the second half of games is still something to be wary of.
The Parlay (+1000)
- Buffalo Bills -8.5 First Half (+200)
- Josh Allen Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-240)
- Home Team Total Second Half Over 10.5 (+140)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Bills-Saints
Bills -8.5 First Half (+200)
This one is pretty easy. The Saints have been getting beat up and down the field in the first half. They could be without their two best running backs and will likely be experimenting to find what works offensively early.
A struggling Saints offense will simply give Josh Allen and the Bills more chances to score and they have too much talent to be held down. The Saints look like they will also be missing one of their best defenders, Marcus Davenport. Davenport played well both against the run and pass so Buffalo’s offense should find success much easier.
Josh Allen Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-240)
At a line of 2.0, our Pro Top Props grades this as a B+. Getting an extra 0.5 just makes this hitting even more likely. Allen has only thrown for three or more touchdowns three times this year and those only came in games where their opponent kept up with them.
If we follow Prop 1, the Bills will get out to an early and comfortable lead and be able to focus on milking the clock. This should set the stage for another game where Allen is not required to throw touchdowns.
Over 10.5 Home Team Total Second Half (+140)
This is following the theme from the previous three games for the Saints. New Orleans has consistently fallen behind and then fought back hard in the second half. Sean Payton is a talented play-caller but finding the right scheme offensively on a short week — with injuries — against a good defense is too much. However, after seeing what the Bills do for the first half we will be able to make adjustments. Add in that the Bills will likely play more relaxed on defense because they will have a lead and this is the setting for another big Saints second half.
There you have it, our three-leg same game parlay for Thanksgiving. Fill up, get take your nap, and hopefully we will end Thanksgiving with a big payday!
