Bills vs. Saints Predictions, Odds
Bills -6
Sean Koerner: This is a rare time I'm going with a public favorite.
Given my projected line, the Bills are playing much better than their 6-4 record would indicate. And with the Saints' injury report, I am easily laying the points with the Bills.
I would project the Bills closer to -8.5 if Mark Ingram and Terron Armstead are ruled out, so it's key to lock in this number in at 6.5 before it potentially moves to 7 with more injury news (check real-time NFL odds here).
Raheem Palmer: The Bills have been dominant on the road, where they've gone 15-6 over the last 21 games. For good reason, we've seen the market push this number up from -4 to -6 as the Saints have been decimated by injuries.
The offensive line injuries are particularly troubling with both starting tackles Terron Armstead (knee) and Ryan Ramczyk (knee/shoulder) missing practice. Making matters worse, the depth of this unit will be tested as rookie tackle Landon Young is expected to undergo season-ending foot surgery just one week after making his first start.
Unfortunately for the Saints, the injuries don't stop there — Alvin Kamara continues to miss time with a knee injury and Mark Ingram is questionable. With Kamara hurt and a lack of weapons at receiver, there's not much for the Bills to fear. Nonetheless, the Saints will certainly have their hands full with this Bills pass rush, which is first in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, second in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and second success rate and fifth in ESPN's pass rush win rate.
It's tough to imagine Trevor Siemian playing well given the problems on the offensive line.
The Bills haven't played well offensively recently with Josh Allen throwing five of his eight interceptions over the last three games, but this represents a good bounce-back spot for a team that had everything go wrong last week. The Bills aren't likely to turn the ball over four times and have two missed field goals again, so I expect Allen and this Bills offense to have a solid day.
The Saints defense isn't immune to the injury bug either with DE Marcus Davenport missing practice — and that's aside from the fact this defense struggled to deal with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last week. Hurts completed just 13 of 24 passes for 147 yards, but he ran 18 times for 69 yards and three touchdowns. Allen presents a similar dual-threat ability, but has more weapons with Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders — who should know this Saints defense pretty well given his time in New Orleans last season.
This is likely to be a game sharps and the public are all over — while I normally don't want to play these situations, the public typically wins these games on Thanksgiving. As my colleague Brandon Anderson pointed out, Thanksgiving favorites are 32-14 ATS since 2005, covering 70% of the time by 4.7 points.
I would bet this only to -6.
Brandon Anderson: We might finally get a good Thanksgiving matchup in the nightcap, but that depends on which version of the Bills shows up.
The 6-4 Bills have ugly losses to the Jaguars and Colts, and have lost three of their past five games with Josh Allen throwing six interceptions over that stretch. But the Bills have been the league's biggest all-or-nothing team of 2021 — they lead the league with a historically high rating in Football Outsiders' Variance metric.
That means when Buffalo is bad, it's really bad. But when Buffalo is good, it's great.
The Bills are still one of the top teams in the AFC and their defense has been elite outside of last week's Colts letdown. Now this feels like the perfect get-right spot for a pissed off, fired-up Bills defense against a Saints offense besieged by injuries.
The Bills are my top play of the week — I liked them most at the opening line of -4, where I bet them at, but I see value all the way to -6 if necessary.
Bills-Saints Under 45.5
Chris Raybon: This is yet another under play for me.
On paper, this game features two average offenses — Buffalo is 14th in DVOA, New Orleans is 15th — and two elite defenses, with Buffalo clocking in first and New Orleans in sixth. Both of these teams can stop the run, which should lead to a lot of second- and third-and-longs.
The better offense has to go into a rawkus environment on the road, and both teams should give their best effort on defense as both are desperate for a win.
I would bet this down to 45 points (shop for the best real-time line here).
Stuckey: Despite getting absolutely roasted by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts last week, the Bills defense still ranks No. 1 in defensive DVOA, which adjusts for opponent.
I expect a major bounce-back performance here from that Bills defense. Plus, they will benefit from facing an extremely undermanned Saints offense with Trevor Siemian under center and a number of key missing pieces at every level. Alvin Kamara is out and Mark Ingram is questionable for a team that already doesn’t have the services of Michael Thomas and now Adam Trautman. Additionally, the Saints could be without both of their stud tackles.
Master offensive game planner Sean Payton also has only a few days to prepare. Expect him to go heavy run, play slow and lean on his defense after Siemian made some boneheaded throws last week.
On the other side of the ball, I expect a bounce back from the Saints defense as well after they got torched by the Eagles last week. Despite that performance, the New Orleans defense still ranks fifth in DVOA.
Yes, the Bills play on the faster side as the league’s most pass-heavy team, but there are major issues with their offense right now. The offensive line has had to shift a few pieces around due to injuries and COVID, and the pressure allowed has increased. Cole Beasley is also dealing with a rib injury and Dawson Knox remains out.
Opponents have also started to play a lot of 2 deep against Buffalo to take away the big play. That’s super effective when you get pressure against the offensive line and with Josh Allen not being as accurate this season to hit the intermediary stuff. After finishing second in the NFL last year, Allen has dropped to 16th in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation).
I trust that the Bills offense will eventually figure it out over time, especially once they get fully healthy. I can’t see them getting right on a short week on the road against an extremely talented defense.
I expect both defenses to control this battle of two desperate teams coming off losses.
