Bills at Steelers Betting Picks
- Odds: Steelers -1
- Over/Under: 37
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
A majority of bettors are fading the Pittsburgh Steelers as small home favorites, with more than 70% of tickets and money backing the Buffalo Bills.
Our experts don't necessarily agree with the public, and in fact, two have ignored the spread in favor of the over/under. You'll find their Sunday Night Football picks below.
Sean Koerner: Steelers -1
My power ratings are not the main factor driving this play: The Steelers are a mismatch for the Bills.
Devlin Hodges is 3-0 as the starter and I expect the Steelers will continue to use him as a game manager while leaning heavily on the run game. James Conner is questionable, but the Steelers appear set to welcome back their stud running back, and it couldn’t be better timed.
The Bills tend to play a softer zone defense that shuts down boundary wide receivers and limits the passing game at the expense of being vulnerable against the run. The Steelers offense sans Ben Roethlisberger is equipped to do just that.
The Steelers also lead the league in generating pressure at a 31.0% clip, and Josh Allen is terrible against pressure as seen by his 54.2 QB rating when faced with it.
I bet the Steelers as a pick'em but like them up until -1, which is still available at some books.
Koerner is 147-104-2 (58.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Chris Raybon: Under 37
This is your quintessential December cold-weather slugfest between two defense-first teams.
The Bills rank second in the NFL in points allowed (16.3) while the Steelers rank sixth (18.3). And while this should be a defensive struggle, both of these young quarterbacks have been taking care of the football — Allen has committed just four turnovers over his past nine games, while Hodges has turned it over only twice in three starts — so the risk of a defensive score is lower than usual for this type of game.
Both teams are 10-3 toward the under this season, and only one of the past five Steelers games has managed to surpass 33 combined points. Weather could play a factor here, too, so even though this total is already low, I wanted to grab it early as I wouldn't bet it lower than 36.5.
Raybon is 179-131-10 (57.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Matthew Freedman: Under 37
I'm all over Bills unders. Sean McDermott is a defensive-oriented guy, and since he joined the franchise in 2017, the Bills are 27-18 (17.3% ROI) to the under.
In his first year, the Bills allowed a middling 5.3 yards per play, but over the past two seasons, they have been one of the league's stingiest defenses, ranking No. 3 last year with 4.9 yards per play allowed and No. 4 this season with 4.8.
And with Allen, the Bills have a perfectly under-prone offense. Allen is inaccurate (56.7% career completion rate). Allen turns the ball over (20 interceptions, six lost fumbles in 25 games). Allen runs whenever possible (7.4 carries per game).
And yet Allen is just good enough to keep drives going and to prevent opposing offenses from incessantly getting the ball back.
In Allen’s 24 career starts, the Bills since last season have played a strong style of low-scoring complementary football (per RotoViz Team Splits App).
- Allen’s starts (24 games): 20.0 points scored, 17.8 points allowed
- Other starts (five games): 12.8 points scored, 32 points allowed
In Allen’s 24 starts, the Bills under is 17-7 (37.6% ROI).
Freedman is 508-384-21 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
