Bills at Steelers Sunday Night Football Odds & Betting Picks
- Spread: Steelers -1
- Over/Under: 37
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Despite a vast majority of bettors backing the Buffalo Bills as 1-point underdogs against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this spread hasn't budged. So what gives?
Our experts preview this Sunday Night Football matchup, featuring their spread and over/under picks.
Sunday Night Football Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Bills
The Bills have been pretty healthy all season and head into this game with only two players listed as questionable: Offensive lineman Jon Feliciano (illness) and defensive lineman Corey Liuget (knee).
JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered a setback in practice earlier this week and was ultimately ruled out with his knee injury. The Steelers will also be without starting tight end Vance McDonald. Meanwhile, James Conner (shoulder) practiced in full all week but was listed as questionable, so it sounds like he's trending toward playing. — Justin Bailey
Biggest Mismatch
Bills Pass Defense vs. Steelers Passing Game
Devlin Hodges has been efficient, completing 71.3% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, but he's done so on extremely low volume — the Steelers haven't cleared 200 net passing yards in any of his starts.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Bills pass defense ranks fifth in schedule-adjusted efficiency, which represents a step up in class from the other defenses Hodges has started against: The Chargers (21st), Browns (15th) and Cardinals (29th).
It's also notable that his yards per attempt is nearly a whole yard lower (8.5 to 7.6) if he doesn't hit a 79-yard bomb to James Washington against the Bengals' 30th-ranked unit.
Washington and Dionte Johnson have been enjoying somewhat of a breakout over the past few weeks with Smith-Schuster out, but it'll be tougher sledding against a Bills secondary featuring cornerbacks Tre'Davious White, Kevin Johnson and safety Micah Hyde, all of whom rank in the top 10 in coverage at their position in Pro Football Focus’ grades. (Washington and Johnson rank 44th and 74th, respectively, in receiving grades.)
With Hodges at the helm of low-volume pass offense unlikely to hit big plays against Sean McDermott's sound defense, and the Bills' offense likely to struggle against the Steelers top-three defense as well, the under looks primed to hit in a Steelers game for the sixth straight week. — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Steelers -1.5
- Projected Total: 36
My power ratings are not the main factor driving this play. The Steelers are a mismatch for the Bills, and the market behavior is making it clear that sharps agree. Despite more than 70% of the tickets and money coming in on the Bills as of writing (see live public betting data here), the line has stayed at Steelers -1.
Hodges is 3-0 as the starter and I expect the Steelers will continue to use him as a game manager while leaning heavily on the run game. And with Conner questionable, they appear set to get their stud running back back, which couldn't be better timed.
The Bills tend to play a softer zone defense that shuts down boundary wide receivers and limits the passing game at the expense of being vulnerable against the run. The Steelers offense sans Big Ben is equipped to do just that.
The Steelers also lead the league in generating pressure at a 31.0% clip, and Josh Allen is terrible against pressure as seen by his 54.2 QB rating when faced with it.
I'm rolling with the Steelers -1 here.— Sean Koerner
Koerner is 147-104-2 (58.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Expert Pick
Raybon: Under 37
I alluded to my pick earlier, but let's dig a little deeper.
This is your quintessential December cold-weather slugfest between two defense-first teams.
The Bills rank second in the NFL in points allowed (16.3) while the Steelers rank sixth (18.3). And while this should be a defensive struggle, both of these young quarterbacks have been taking care of the football — Allen has committed just four turnovers over his past nine games, while Hodges has turned it over only twice in three starts — so the risk of a defensive score is lower than usual for this type of game.
Both teams are 10-3 toward the under this season, and only one of the past five Steelers games has managed to surpass 33 combined points. And as my colleague Matthew Freedman points out in his weekly trends piece, the under is 17-7 in Allen's career starts, according to our Bet Labs data.
Weather could play a factor here, too, so even though this total is already low, I wanted to grab it early as I wouldn't bet it lower than 36.5.
Raybon is 179-131-10 (57.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
