Titans vs. Bills Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Titans +6 |
| Bills 2H (-2.5) |
| Derrick Henry Over 14.5 Rec Yards |
Titans +6
Stuckey: I love this Bills team — they were my only Super Bowl future for a reason. However, after a blowout win on national television over the almighty Chiefs, Bills stock might be at its peak. And as a bettor, I wager on numbers, not teams.
There's too much value on the home dog Titans to pass up here.
And I like to back this Titans team as a dog. For what it's worth, Mike Vrabel owns a sparkling 13-5 record against the spread (ATS) — a 72.2% success rate — as an underdog of three or more points, covering by an average of more than eight points per game.
The Titans have the offense to keep up with the Bills' high-powered attack. And King Derrick Henry should have a monster game on the ground against a Bills defense that remains vulnerable against the run, partly by design.
This Tennessee passing offense should continue to improve on a weekly basis with all of its primary parts back in the mix. With both superstar receivers now expected to be fully healthy, look for the Titans to attack Bills cornerback Levi Wallace. And if needed, Ryan Tannehill can sneak in the backdoor if necessary.
Josh Allen also has looked a bit off in the accuracy department (when receivers aren't running wide open against Kansas City's sieve defense). A few errant throws in key situations and/or in the red zone could swing this outcome.
When you adjust for opponent, this Buffalo offense has played at only a slightly above-average level, so it's still working some things out. And while I love this defense, it has faced three backup quarterbacks in its first five games, so the numbers are artificially high.
Lock the Titans in at +6 if you can — even up to -115 — but I still like them down to +5 (find the best real-time line here). I was as high on the Bills as anyone coming into the season and still have them rated as the top team in the AFC, but inflation has hit the market, which means it's time to sell.
Bills 2H -2.5
Michael Arinze: The Bills will look to avenge last season's humiliating 42-16 loss to the Titans. It was a unique game that was rescheduled for a Tuesday following a COVID-19 outbreak in the Tennessee locker room. It didn't help that Buffalo was in a letdown and look-ahead spot with a home game looming against a reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City team the following week.
The Bills uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times — twice inside their half — with all three turnovers resulting in touchdown drives that took less than two minutes. Titans cornerback Malcolm Butler was responsible for two of those turnovers, with two interceptions. Butler is no longer on the Titans after retiring before the season due to a personal matter.
This time, the Bills are coming off an impressive 38-20 road victory over the Chiefs. Buffalo has the highest point differential (+108) in the league, and its ranked first in Football Outsiders' overall DVOA metric.
It's fair to expect the Titans to establish the run with Derrick Henry in the first half. However, the Bills have done a good job containing him as he's yet to rush for more than 78 yards in their three meetings. And if Buffalo's offense plays at the same level that we've seen over the past four weeks, that'll force Tennessee to be more unbalanced and abandon the run. Thus, the Titans will likely be chasing the game, particularly in the second half.
That could play right into the hands of a Bills defense that's ranked first in DVOA against the pass.
The Bills are 9-1 ATS in the second half of their last 10 games, per our Action Labs data. They're also on a 4-0 ATS run in this spot. Thus, I recommend a half-unit play on the Bills in the second half at -2.5 — you can find this number available at Unibet as of writing. I would play it up to -3.
Derrick Henry Over 14.5 Rec Yards
Mike Randle: This is a pick based on similar logic to the Jonathan Taylor receiving prop we cashed last Monday night. Tennessee enters the game limited on offense with leading wide receiver A.J. Brown listed as questionable with an illness. Brown has also been battling a lingering hamstring injury, further clouding the efficiency of the Tennessee passing game.
The Titans need to get creative on offense to compete with the Bills.
Tennessee's defense ranks 27th in DVOA and is unlikely to limit the explosive Buffalo offense, so the Titans needs to rely on their limited offensive playmakers to generate yardage, which means a heavy dose of Henry.
Henry actually ranks 16th among all running backs in receiving yards entering Week 6, and his total of 125 yards is already higher than his 2020 end-of-season total of 114 yards. Henry has beat this prop in four of the past five games, with last week's positive game script in the win over Jacksonville as the only outlier.
The Titans will look to deploy Henry in every facet of the offense, and I expect his newly-efficient passing game usage to be prominently featured. I grabbed this prop at 13.5 yards and it has now climbed to 14.5, but I am still comfortable taking it here and would do so up to 15.5 yards.
