Betting Odds: Birmingham Iron at San Diego Fleet
- Spread: Fleet -6
- Over/Under: 35.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
- TV: NFL Network
Betting market: The Fleet opened and remain 6-point favorites. The opening over/under of 36 points also hasn't moved.
Week 5 Takeaways
Birmingham's 31-14 Loss to Orlando
The Iron have lost consecutive games after winning three straight to start the season. Things are still looking up after Keith Price took over for Luis Perez in Week 5 and completed 18-of-29 (62.1%) passes for 234 yards (8.1 yards per attempt) and a touchdown.
Here's what head coach Tim Lewis said after the game: "We’ll continue to work the way we’ve been working, but with an added emphasis on 'he who moves it gets to stay in’ … I’m all about that. I’m all about when you have your opportunity, if it moves, you get to stay at the helm, and I’m OK with that."
We have roughly five games of evidence that Perez is incapable of consistently moving the Birmingham offense, so an expected switch to Price is certainly welcomed.
San Diego's 27-25 Win Over Salt Lake
Mike Bercovici played light years better during the Fleet's Week 5 victory than he did during his porous Week 1 debut. While his 51.2% completion rate wasn't ideal, his willingness to push the ball downfield still helped him throw for 304 yards and a touchdown.
San Diego has deployed one of the league's best pass rushes and rushing attacks all season and is positioned for a late-season run if Bercovici and Co. can keep making plays downfield.
Which team is healthier? San Diego
The Fleet are only dealing with injuries to offensive lineman Damien Mama (ankle) and stud linebacker A.J. Tarpley (back), who were limited in practice to start the week. Of course, starting quarterback Philip Nelson (fractured clavicle, IR) is out indefinitely.
The Iron appear a bit closer to getting Week 1 starting wide receiver Amba Etta-Tawo (knee) back after he started the week with a limited practice. Defensive back Trovon Reed (ankle) and running back Brandon Ross (groin) were also limited while offensive linemen Korren Kirven (calf) and J.C. Hassenauer (knee) joined defensive back Ryan White (head) on the sideline.
Note that the Iron waived scat back Ladarius Perkins in favor of Marshaun Coprich.
Key matchup: Bercovici vs. Birmingham's Secondary
We've already seen the best and worst versions of Bercovici during his two starts this season. He'll need to at least resemble the accurate yet- earless gunslinger who was on display last week to have success against the Iron's league-best defense in yards allowed per attempt.
The Birmingham secondary got torched a bit by the Apollos last week, but the Iron still boast more talent than pretty much anybody:
- CB Jamar Summers: Pro Football Focus' No. 3 overall corner among 46 qualified corners
- CB Trovon Reed: No. 16
- CB Elijah Campbell: No. 19
- CB Ryan White: No. 20
- S Joe Powell: PFF's No. 2 overall safety among 27 qualified safeties
- S Jacob Hagen: No. 9
- S Max Redfield: No. 13
- S Jack Tocho: No. 14
DFS edge: Birmingham WRs
There's more value among the Iron wide receivers than any other position group on the slate.
Amba Etta-Tawo (No. 1 in opportunities per dollar), Quinton Patton (No. 3) and L'Damian Washington (No. 4) all appear to be underpriced, especially after considering their likely upgrade at quarterback.
Patton in particular is egregiously cheap considering his 7.4 targets per game trail only Charles Johnson (8).
Bet to watch: Iron +6
We've seen Atlanta and Memphis benefit immensely from switching quarterbacks.I'm confident that Price has the ability to instill a similar spark with the Iron offense, which is getting healthier and has uncovered solid options in Washington and tight end Wes Saxton.
Birmingham (+27) boasts a better point differential than San Diego (+22) despite their identical 3-2 records.
