Former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix may be a first rounder, and his odds have been steamed heavily over the last few days amid rumors that a team will reach up to snag him.
The benefit? The team that picks him in the first round will have a fifth-year option for the quarterback, increasing team control. As a second-round pick, a team would only have four years of guaranteed control before deciding whether Nix should be the quarterback of the future.
As a result of this steam, his odds have reduced from +190 to be a first-rounder to his current clip of -140 at FanDuel.
That implies that the probability has increased by more than 20% that Nix will be picked up by a team in the first round.
The Broncos are the far-and-away favorites at +150 to draft the 2023 Heisman finalist. Sean Payton and company have reported big interest in the former Auburn transfer. The +150 odds compare to the second-best odds at +410 that the Raiders draft Nix. Third-best are the Vikings at +650.
This intense steam goes against our better judgment at the Action Network. My colleague and NFL expert Brandon Anderson is bullish on under 4.5 quarterbacks to be selected in the first round, which has best market odds at +390 at FanDuel. The thesis? In general, the consuming public gets bored when there's a consensus top three or top four in the sport's most valuable position.
Media types, scouts and mock drafters begin to talk themselves into the next crop of quarterbacks until draft time, while actual decision makers grade these candidates as second-round picks or worse. Think Malik Willis in 2022 (second rounder) or Will Levis last season (second round, too).
2024 NFL Draft Predictions: Bet QBs by Fading Michael Penix & Bo Nix
