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Brian Robinson Jr. Rushing Yards
| Prop | Brian Robinson Jr. Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110) |
| Matchup | Commanders vs. Eagles |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
Brian Robinson Jr. has been one of the league's best comeback stories and regained his backfield role. The Alabama product is averaging 43.8 rushing yards in five games this season.
I avoid targeting an underdog team's running back rushing prop in an unfavorable game script that likely involves trailing by double-digit points, but there are a few things to like here.
For starters, the Philadelphia Eagles will not have rookie phenom defensive tackle Jordan Davis again tonight. The 13th-overall pick out of Georgia has been impactful in stopping the run game and grades as the team's second-best defensive player in their Run Blocking Grade, per Pro Football Focus.
His absence will matter to their poor 27th-ranked unit by DVOA against the run as opposed to their second-ranked DVOA against the pass. To emphasize how bad they have been in the running game, the Eagles have a 30.0 team Tackle Grade on defense, which is the second-worst according to Pro Football Focus.
The Commanders have used a back-by-committee approach the last few weeks, but with J.D. McKissic set to miss tonight's matchup, the backfield will now consist of Robinson and Gibson.
Robinson's rushing attempts line is juiced on the over at 9.5, meaning he would need to average 3.4 yards per carry to achieve this at that number of carries. Robinson is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, but this should improve as opposing running backs are averaging 5.2 yards per carry against the Eagles, ranking fifth-highest in the league.
All opponent running backs seeing at least seven carries since Week 5 have averaged more than 3.4 yards per carry against this defense. The Commanders must establish the run and attack the Eagles' Achilles heel to make this competitive.
As long as Robinson matches what others have done in the past, he should very likely go over his rushing yards prop.
