Brock Purdy is in concussion protocols and is likely to miss Sunday's tilt between the Bengals and 49ers, said head coach Kyle Shanahan on Wednesday.
The news moved odds for Bengals vs. 49ers precipitously, and it stands to reason why. While Purdy has had a brutal last two weeks, he still ranks No. 1 overall in expected points added per play plus completion percentage over expected (EPA/play + CPOE), the single most important advanced metric in judging quarterback and NFL MVP marketplaces.
Plus, one of his mediocre showings came against the Browns defense, which is boasting a historically good season and ranks No. 1 across every advanced metric.
While the 49ers had been as high as -245 favorites on the moneyline prior to Shanahan's press conference, they're as low as -162 at BetRivers minutes after the news.
On the spread, the market-best price pitted the 49ers as -6 point favorites. Now, that line has moved to a consensus -3.5.
In a corresponding move, the best odds you could get on the Bengals had been +205 prior to the news on Wednesday afternoon. now, those odds are roughly +150.
Meanwhile, the total has dropped from its consensus point of 45.5 to 43.5 — through two key numbers — on account of Purdy's potential absence.
If Purdy can't go, the nod will go to Sam Darnold, who hasn't started games since he was the middling starting quarterback for the Panthers last season. Darnold closed the season out after replacing Baker Mayfield as starter but finished firmly in the bottom quartile among quarterbacks at EPA/play + CPOE.
For what it's worth, no player this season has played a game the same week he was placed into the concussion protocol. The last player to do so was Kenny Pickett in 2022.
My colleague Sean Koerner — who heads out predictive analytics department — said if the market stops at 49ers -3.5, it's leaving the door open for Purdy potentially suiting up on Sunday. A drop to 49ers -3 means he's likely going to miss the game. If he's ruled out, the line may drop to -2.5.
He added that the status of left tackle Trent Williams — the best at his position in the league — is as important. If he's ruled out, he could see the line dropping even further to 49ers -2 or even -1.5.
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor.
Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.
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Sunday, Oct. 254:25 p.m. ETCBS
